Alright so 5/10 this week with NFL bets. Not a good week. We'll get better as the season progresses. Let's dig into the bets and see what went right/wrong.
Thursday
DJ Moore - hit easily
Sunday
Stefon Diggs/Bills ML parlay - shouldn't have added the second leg, got a bit greedy there. Diggs hit and we should have won that as a straight bet.
Trevor Lawrence under 36.5 completions - he ended up with 37. This one hurt, the Bills literally just couldn't stay on the field. They started the game with like 4 straight 3 and outs - clearly the time difference affected them.
Zay Flowers over receptions - hit easily
Jonnu Smith Dolphins parlay - hit easily
Adam Thilien over receptions - hit easily
Jamarr Chase over receptions - hit easily
Monday
Davante Adams - he had FIFTY targets entering last nights game through 4 games. Somehow he was only targeted 4 times last night in a supposed to be revenge game. Very strange
Romeo Doubs - was their leading receiver entering last nights game, the Raiders had been particularly bad at giving up short passes in the middle of the field, Jordan Love was just horrible and kept throwing picks anytime he targeted Doubs. Last night was just a weird game where the data pointed one way and the results went the other way.
The next few weeks are going to be light, MLB is done and all we have in NFL until NBA kicks off end of October. But we want to wait till about November 10th before we starting betting on NBA - need 1-2 weeks of game data for the predictions to be solid. We will get back into the swing of things, and I'm confident NFL will get better. If you want to just wait for NBA that's an option too.
MLB Hit Rate - 260/383 67.8% on the year.
NFL Hit Rate - 6/14 - 42% This number will go up as the season progresses
Our season to date success rate when blindly trusting the model is 62% over walks, 61% over strikeouts, 58% under walks, and 56% under strikeouts. When we post our recommended bets, it's the combination of our AI model and human analysis that leads to a 68% success rate. Just be cautious when blindly trusting the model.
George Box once said, "All models are wrong, some are useful." Truer words were never spoken.
Over Walks Predictions old
wdt_ID
Player Name
Game Date
Over/Under
Market Implied Probability
Predicted Over Probability
1805
Patrick Sandoval
05/01/2024
1.50
64.91%
62.61%
1806
Dakota Hudson
05/01/2024
1.50
60.0%
61.67%
1807
Chris Bassitt
05/01/2024
1.50
47.62%
58.67%
1808
Kenta Maeda
05/01/2024
1.50
58.33%
54.73%
1809
Ross Stripling
05/01/2024
1.50
51.22%
53.79%
1810
Joe Musgrove
05/01/2024
1.50
58.33%
53.13%
1811
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
05/01/2024
1.50
57.45%
52.13%
1812
Chris Flexen
05/01/2024
1.50
62.26%
52.01%
1813
Seth Lugo
05/01/2024
1.50
57.45%
51.96%
1814
Trevor Williams
05/01/2024
1.50
60.0%
50.34%
Under Walks Predictions old
wdt_ID
Player Name
Game Date
Over/Under
Market Implied Probability
Predicted Under Probability
1788
Quinn Priester
05/01/2024
2.50
65.52%
78.01%
1789
Corbin Burnes
05/01/2024
2.50
62.26%
75.53%
1790
Shota Imanaga
05/01/2024
1.50
64.29%
68.06%
1791
Triston McKenzie
05/01/2024
2.50
63.64%
67.76%
1792
Bailey Ober
05/01/2024
1.50
67.21%
67.28%
1793
Miles Mikolas
05/01/2024
1.50
62.26%
66.73%
1794
Zach Eflin
05/01/2024
1.50
62.26%
62.39%
1795
Colin Rea
05/01/2024
1.50
58.33%
60.43%
1796
Andrew Heaney
05/01/2024
1.50
53.49%
58.76%
1797
Zack Wheeler
05/01/2024
1.50
56.52%
58.36%
Over Strikeouts Predictions old
wdt_ID
Player Name
Game Date
Over/Under
Market Implied Probability
Exact Prediction
Predicted Over Probability
1802
Dakota Hudson
05/01/2024
2.50
63.64%
3.45
68.62%
1803
Ross Stripling
05/01/2024
4.50
50.0%
4.96
59.51%
1804
Quinn Priester
05/01/2024
4.50
61.54%
5.22
59.34%
1805
Graham Ashcraft
05/01/2024
4.50
47.62%
4.85
55.14%
1806
Jose Butto
05/01/2024
5.50
54.55%
5.93
55.11%
1807
Patrick Sandoval
05/01/2024
5.50
52.38%
5.57
51.13%
1808
Shota Imanaga
05/01/2024
4.50
58.33%
4.46
49.56%
1809
Justin Verlander
05/01/2024
5.50
45.45%
5.22
46.85%
1810
Bailey Ober
05/01/2024
5.50
51.22%
5.20
46.39%
1811
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
05/01/2024
5.50
46.51%
5.06
44.56%
Under Strikeouts Predictions old
wdt_ID
Player Name
Game Date
Over/Under
Market Implied Probability
Exact Prediction
Predicted Under Probability
1800
Chris Flexen
05/01/2024
4.50
62.26%
3.26
79.84%
1801
Zach Eflin
05/01/2024
5.50
60.0%
3.94
78.47%
1802
Jordan Montgomery
05/01/2024
4.50
58.33%
3.23
72.96%
1803
Kenta Maeda
05/01/2024
4.50
53.49%
3.68
66.43%
1804
Triston McKenzie
05/01/2024
4.50
60.78%
3.37
65.58%
1805
Colin Rea
05/01/2024
4.50
53.49%
3.79
63.85%
1806
Chris Bassitt
05/01/2024
4.50
47.62%
3.64
63.53%
1807
Joe Musgrove
05/01/2024
6.50
59.18%
5.81
63.05%
1808
Andrew Heaney
05/01/2024
4.50
60.0%
3.55
62.11%
1809
Seth Lugo
05/01/2024
4.50
58.33%
3.78
59.66%
Over Hits Predictions old
wdt_ID
Player Name
Game Date
Over/Under
Market Implied Probability
Exact Prediction
Predicted Over Probability
1385
Andrew Heaney
05/01/2024
4.50
61.54%
5.20
65.46%
1386
Zack Wheeler
05/01/2024
4.50
58.33%
5.35
63.97%
1387
Bailey Ober
05/01/2024
4.50
55.56%
5.27
60.13%
1388
Kutter Crawford
05/01/2024
4.50
62.96%
5.29
58.92%
1389
Triston McKenzie
05/01/2024
4.50
56.52%
4.90
58.06%
1390
Joe Musgrove
05/01/2024
4.50
56.52%
4.96
57.02%
1391
Luis Gil
05/01/2024
4.50
59.18%
4.78
54.89%
1392
Corbin Burnes
05/01/2024
4.50
48.78%
4.86
54.64%
1393
Colin Rea
05/01/2024
5.50
44.44%
5.71
53.5%
1394
Kenta Maeda
05/01/2024
4.50
61.54%
4.68
52.57%
Under Hits Predictions old
Player Name
wdt_ID
Game Date
Over/Under
Market Implied Probability
Exact Prediction
Predicted Under Probability
Chris Flexen
1370
2024-05-01
5.5
60.0%
4.4940734
62.99%
Justin Verlander
1371
2024-05-01
5.5
55.56%
4.854916
62.17%
Dakota Hudson
1372
2024-05-01
6.5
57.45%
5.684455
62.13%
Miles Mikolas
1373
2024-05-01
6.5
54.55%
5.776083
59.76%
Seth Lugo
1374
2024-05-01
6.5
62.26%
5.7365
59.01%
Shota Imanaga
1375
2024-05-01
5.5
62.26%
4.9883323
58.79%
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
1376
2024-05-01
5.5
60.0%
5.1008363
57.37%
Trevor Williams
1377
2024-05-01
5.5
54.55%
5.2182055
55.43%
Patrick Sandoval
1378
2024-05-01
5.5
56.52%
5.125405
55.38%
Ross Stripling
1379
2024-05-01
5.5
57.45%
5.3271947
52.06%
Over Outs Predictions old
Player Name
Game Date
Over/Under
Market Implied Probability
Exact Prediction
Predicted Over Probability
wdt_ID
Luis Gil
2024-05-01
15.5
50.0%
16.312172
54.78%
1236
Zack Wheeler
2024-05-01
18.5
50.0%
19.027063
52.83%
1237
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
2024-05-01
15.5
55.56%
15.927884
52.32%
1238
Colin Rea
2024-05-01
15.5
48.78%
15.90167
52.32%
1239
Patrick Sandoval
2024-05-01
16.5
50.0%
16.71748
51.32%
1240
Graham Ashcraft
2024-05-01
17.5
60.0%
17.586697
50.48%
1241
Dakota Hudson
2024-05-01
15.5
53.49%
15.572465
50.42%
1242
Corbin Burnes
2024-05-01
16.5
58.33%
16.50232
50.01%
1243
Ross Stripling
2024-05-01
16.5
50.0%
16.414318
49.5%
1244
Shota Imanaga
2024-05-01
17.5
52.38%
17.389748
49.45%
1245
Under Outs Predictions old
Player Name
Game Date
Exact Prediction
Over/Under
Market Implied Probability
Predicted Under Probability
wdt_ID
Chris Bassitt
2024-05-01
17.198654
18.5
65.52%
57.4%
1200
Kenta Maeda
2024-05-01
14.288654
15.5
56.52%
57.07%
1201
Miles Mikolas
2024-05-01
16.423141
17.5
51.22%
56.53%
1202
Trevor Williams
2024-05-01
14.4420805
15.5
57.45%
56.35%
1203
Joe Musgrove
2024-05-01
16.469662
17.5
52.38%
55.97%
1204
Jose Butto
2024-05-01
15.486002
16.5
54.55%
55.26%
1205
Kutter Crawford
2024-05-01
16.683558
17.5
55.56%
55.0%
1206
Seth Lugo
2024-05-01
16.704185
17.5
45.45%
54.28%
1207
Chris Flexen
2024-05-01
13.82266
14.5
43.48%
53.69%
1208
Zach Eflin
2024-05-01
16.982737
17.5
48.78%
53.02%
1209
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Implied Probability Calculator
Kelly Criterion Calculator
Layup Legs Joint Probability Calculator
Live In Game Win Probability Calculator
Odds Calculator
Convert american or decimal odds to implied probability
Calculate the joint probability of a pitcher allowing a certain amount of hits and the opposing team scoring a certain amount of runs.
wdt_ID
Pitcher Name
Pitcher Hits Allowed Line
Opposing Team Runs Scored Line
Joint Probability of Both Going Over
Number of Games Pitched This Season
193762
Pitcher Name
Pitcher Hits Allowed Line
Opposing Team Runs Scored Line
How to use this page:
As the games are going on, the sportsbooks constantly update the odds for a particular team winning, depending on the score, the inning, the number of outs, and the runners on. We’ve used machine learning to get you the exact win probability for every possible game state imaginable.
1. Enter what team you want the win probability for (Home/Away)
2. Enter what inning it is (number and top or bottom) as well as how many outs there are
3. Enter the run differential (If you want the score for the home team and they’re losing 5-1, you put -4 for run differential. If they’re winning 5-1, you put 4)
4. Enter yes/no whether there’s a runner on 1st, 2nd or 3rd.
5. Using the second table, type in the odds DraftKings or FanDuel (any sportbook really) is giving you, to get their implied market probability. If there’s a significant difference between our model’s win probability and the sportsbook’s win probability, it’s potentially a bet worth placing!
IMPORTANT: This current version is a non-team specific probability. It is not considering who the current pitcher is, who’s at bat, whether it’s a terrible team vs the best team in baseball, or anything besides what’s in the dropdown options. Down the line, we plan on releasing a more sophisticated team-specific model.
Live In Game Probability Update
Get any team's live in game win probability by using our model trained on 10+ years of data.
wdt_ID
Home/Away
Inning
Top/Bottom Inning
Outs
Run Difference
Runner on 1B
Runner on 2B
Runner on 3B
Probability of Win
team_batting
preds
1
Away
12
Bottom
2
5
No
Yes
No
99.95%
0
1
Home/Away
Inning
Top/Bottom Inning
Outs
Run Difference
Runner on 1B
Runner on 2B
Runner on 3B
Odds Calculator
Convert american or decimal odds to implied probability
wdt_ID
American Odds
Decimal Odds
Implied Probability
4002
-10000
1.01
99.01%
American Odds
Decimal Odds
Congratulations, you're officially ready to start placing bets as a member of AI Betting Edge! If you're a seasoned sports bettor, much of the content below won't be new information for you. However, we advise everyone to skim through this guide at least once before diving in and placing bets.
Q. Where should I go to place the bets you post?
For MLB season, 90% of our bets are on DraftKings. DraftKings offers pitcher walk props which have been our hottest market. FanDuel DOES NOT offer walk props. To ensure you catch all of our posted plays, definitely sign up for DraftKings. If you can't for whatever reason, Caesars also offers walk props but not the creative alt lines that DraftKings offers.
Q. How many bets do you post daily?
This depends a lot on the slate size (number of games that day), and how sharp the lines are. Generally we post anywhere from 1-5 bets daily. We also post all our machine learning predictions in case you want to make your own bets.
Q. What happens if the odds are different than what you post, or the line itself has moved?
Obviously, the betting market is indeed a market, and there's no guarantee that if we post a bet at -130, by the time you go to place it it's not at -140. Typically things don't move THAT quickly, but they certainly do from time to time. Our general recommendation is, if the odds move, you should still place the bet. However if the LINE moves (we post an over 5.5 assists bet and when you go to place it, the line is 6.5), we recommend not placing the bet. A lot of people think "Oh what's the difference it's only 1 more strikeout", trust me, it's ALL of the difference. We're dealing with razor thin margins here.
Q. How much should I bet more on bets that you post?
We recommend betting 1 unit on every bet we post. This will ensure you're profitable.
Q. Do you post only straight bets or both straight bets and parlays?
Both. We try to ensure that the odds are always better than -160. So if our model really likes a bet, but its -190, we'll often parlay it with what we call "layup legs". These are simply >90% bets that almost always hit. On the other hand if the odds are -120 for a straight bet, we won't parlay it with anything.
Bet Recap 10/9/23
Alright so 5/10 this week with NFL bets. Not a good week. We'll get better as the season progresses. Let's dig into the bets and see what went right/wrong.
Thursday
DJ Moore - hit easily
Sunday
Stefon Diggs/Bills ML parlay - shouldn't have added the second leg, got a bit greedy there. Diggs hit and we should have won that as a straight bet.
Trevor Lawrence under 36.5 completions - he ended up with 37. This one hurt, the Bills literally just couldn't stay on the field. They started the game with like 4 straight 3 and outs - clearly the time difference affected them.
Zay Flowers over receptions - hit easily
Jonnu Smith Dolphins parlay - hit easily
Adam Thilien over receptions - hit easily
Jamarr Chase over receptions - hit easily
Monday
Davante Adams - he had FIFTY targets entering last nights game through 4 games. Somehow he was only targeted 4 times last night in a supposed to be revenge game. Very strange
Romeo Doubs - was their leading receiver entering last nights game, the Raiders had been particularly bad at giving up short passes in the middle of the field, Jordan Love was just horrible and kept throwing picks anytime he targeted Doubs. Last night was just a weird game where the data pointed one way and the results went the other way.
The next few weeks are going to be light, MLB is done and all we have in NFL until NBA kicks off end of October. But we want to wait till about November 10th before we starting betting on NBA - need 1-2 weeks of game data for the predictions to be solid. We will get back into the swing of things, and I'm confident NFL will get better. If you want to just wait for NBA that's an option too.
MLB Hit Rate - 260/383 67.8% on the year.
NFL Hit Rate - 6/14 - 42% This number will go up as the season progresses
Our season to date success rate when blindly trusting the model is 62% over walks, 61% over strikeouts, 58% under walks, and 56% under strikeouts. When we post our recommended bets, it's the combination of our AI model and human analysis that leads to a 68% success rate. Just be cautious when blindly trusting the model.
George Box once said, "All models are wrong, some are useful." Truer words were never spoken.
Over Walks Predictions old
wdt_ID
Player Name
Game Date
Over/Under
Market Implied Probability
Predicted Over Probability
1805
Patrick Sandoval
05/01/2024
1.50
64.91%
62.61%
1806
Dakota Hudson
05/01/2024
1.50
60.0%
61.67%
1807
Chris Bassitt
05/01/2024
1.50
47.62%
58.67%
1808
Kenta Maeda
05/01/2024
1.50
58.33%
54.73%
1809
Ross Stripling
05/01/2024
1.50
51.22%
53.79%
1810
Joe Musgrove
05/01/2024
1.50
58.33%
53.13%
1811
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
05/01/2024
1.50
57.45%
52.13%
1812
Chris Flexen
05/01/2024
1.50
62.26%
52.01%
1813
Seth Lugo
05/01/2024
1.50
57.45%
51.96%
1814
Trevor Williams
05/01/2024
1.50
60.0%
50.34%
Under Walks Predictions old
wdt_ID
Player Name
Game Date
Over/Under
Market Implied Probability
Predicted Under Probability
1788
Quinn Priester
05/01/2024
2.50
65.52%
78.01%
1789
Corbin Burnes
05/01/2024
2.50
62.26%
75.53%
1790
Shota Imanaga
05/01/2024
1.50
64.29%
68.06%
1791
Triston McKenzie
05/01/2024
2.50
63.64%
67.76%
1792
Bailey Ober
05/01/2024
1.50
67.21%
67.28%
1793
Miles Mikolas
05/01/2024
1.50
62.26%
66.73%
1794
Zach Eflin
05/01/2024
1.50
62.26%
62.39%
1795
Colin Rea
05/01/2024
1.50
58.33%
60.43%
1796
Andrew Heaney
05/01/2024
1.50
53.49%
58.76%
1797
Zack Wheeler
05/01/2024
1.50
56.52%
58.36%
Over Strikeouts Predictions old
wdt_ID
Player Name
Game Date
Over/Under
Market Implied Probability
Exact Prediction
Predicted Over Probability
1802
Dakota Hudson
05/01/2024
2.50
63.64%
3.45
68.62%
1803
Ross Stripling
05/01/2024
4.50
50.0%
4.96
59.51%
1804
Quinn Priester
05/01/2024
4.50
61.54%
5.22
59.34%
1805
Graham Ashcraft
05/01/2024
4.50
47.62%
4.85
55.14%
1806
Jose Butto
05/01/2024
5.50
54.55%
5.93
55.11%
1807
Patrick Sandoval
05/01/2024
5.50
52.38%
5.57
51.13%
1808
Shota Imanaga
05/01/2024
4.50
58.33%
4.46
49.56%
1809
Justin Verlander
05/01/2024
5.50
45.45%
5.22
46.85%
1810
Bailey Ober
05/01/2024
5.50
51.22%
5.20
46.39%
1811
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
05/01/2024
5.50
46.51%
5.06
44.56%
Under Strikeouts Predictions old
wdt_ID
Player Name
Game Date
Over/Under
Market Implied Probability
Exact Prediction
Predicted Under Probability
1800
Chris Flexen
05/01/2024
4.50
62.26%
3.26
79.84%
1801
Zach Eflin
05/01/2024
5.50
60.0%
3.94
78.47%
1802
Jordan Montgomery
05/01/2024
4.50
58.33%
3.23
72.96%
1803
Kenta Maeda
05/01/2024
4.50
53.49%
3.68
66.43%
1804
Triston McKenzie
05/01/2024
4.50
60.78%
3.37
65.58%
1805
Colin Rea
05/01/2024
4.50
53.49%
3.79
63.85%
1806
Chris Bassitt
05/01/2024
4.50
47.62%
3.64
63.53%
1807
Joe Musgrove
05/01/2024
6.50
59.18%
5.81
63.05%
1808
Andrew Heaney
05/01/2024
4.50
60.0%
3.55
62.11%
1809
Seth Lugo
05/01/2024
4.50
58.33%
3.78
59.66%
Over Hits Predictions old
wdt_ID
Player Name
Game Date
Over/Under
Market Implied Probability
Exact Prediction
Predicted Over Probability
1385
Andrew Heaney
05/01/2024
4.50
61.54%
5.20
65.46%
1386
Zack Wheeler
05/01/2024
4.50
58.33%
5.35
63.97%
1387
Bailey Ober
05/01/2024
4.50
55.56%
5.27
60.13%
1388
Kutter Crawford
05/01/2024
4.50
62.96%
5.29
58.92%
1389
Triston McKenzie
05/01/2024
4.50
56.52%
4.90
58.06%
1390
Joe Musgrove
05/01/2024
4.50
56.52%
4.96
57.02%
1391
Luis Gil
05/01/2024
4.50
59.18%
4.78
54.89%
1392
Corbin Burnes
05/01/2024
4.50
48.78%
4.86
54.64%
1393
Colin Rea
05/01/2024
5.50
44.44%
5.71
53.5%
1394
Kenta Maeda
05/01/2024
4.50
61.54%
4.68
52.57%
Under Hits Predictions old
Player Name
wdt_ID
Game Date
Over/Under
Market Implied Probability
Exact Prediction
Predicted Under Probability
Chris Flexen
1370
2024-05-01
5.5
60.0%
4.4940734
62.99%
Justin Verlander
1371
2024-05-01
5.5
55.56%
4.854916
62.17%
Dakota Hudson
1372
2024-05-01
6.5
57.45%
5.684455
62.13%
Miles Mikolas
1373
2024-05-01
6.5
54.55%
5.776083
59.76%
Seth Lugo
1374
2024-05-01
6.5
62.26%
5.7365
59.01%
Shota Imanaga
1375
2024-05-01
5.5
62.26%
4.9883323
58.79%
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
1376
2024-05-01
5.5
60.0%
5.1008363
57.37%
Trevor Williams
1377
2024-05-01
5.5
54.55%
5.2182055
55.43%
Patrick Sandoval
1378
2024-05-01
5.5
56.52%
5.125405
55.38%
Ross Stripling
1379
2024-05-01
5.5
57.45%
5.3271947
52.06%
Over Outs Predictions old
Player Name
Game Date
Over/Under
Market Implied Probability
Exact Prediction
Predicted Over Probability
wdt_ID
Luis Gil
2024-05-01
15.5
50.0%
16.312172
54.78%
1236
Zack Wheeler
2024-05-01
18.5
50.0%
19.027063
52.83%
1237
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
2024-05-01
15.5
55.56%
15.927884
52.32%
1238
Colin Rea
2024-05-01
15.5
48.78%
15.90167
52.32%
1239
Patrick Sandoval
2024-05-01
16.5
50.0%
16.71748
51.32%
1240
Graham Ashcraft
2024-05-01
17.5
60.0%
17.586697
50.48%
1241
Dakota Hudson
2024-05-01
15.5
53.49%
15.572465
50.42%
1242
Corbin Burnes
2024-05-01
16.5
58.33%
16.50232
50.01%
1243
Ross Stripling
2024-05-01
16.5
50.0%
16.414318
49.5%
1244
Shota Imanaga
2024-05-01
17.5
52.38%
17.389748
49.45%
1245
Under Outs Predictions old
Player Name
Game Date
Exact Prediction
Over/Under
Market Implied Probability
Predicted Under Probability
wdt_ID
Chris Bassitt
2024-05-01
17.198654
18.5
65.52%
57.4%
1200
Kenta Maeda
2024-05-01
14.288654
15.5
56.52%
57.07%
1201
Miles Mikolas
2024-05-01
16.423141
17.5
51.22%
56.53%
1202
Trevor Williams
2024-05-01
14.4420805
15.5
57.45%
56.35%
1203
Joe Musgrove
2024-05-01
16.469662
17.5
52.38%
55.97%
1204
Jose Butto
2024-05-01
15.486002
16.5
54.55%
55.26%
1205
Kutter Crawford
2024-05-01
16.683558
17.5
55.56%
55.0%
1206
Seth Lugo
2024-05-01
16.704185
17.5
45.45%
54.28%
1207
Chris Flexen
2024-05-01
13.82266
14.5
43.48%
53.69%
1208
Zach Eflin
2024-05-01
16.982737
17.5
48.78%
53.02%
1209
You must be a registered user to participate in this chat.
Implied Probability Calculator
Kelly Criterion Calculator
Layup Legs Joint Probability Calculator
Live In Game Win Probability Calculator
Odds Calculator
Convert american or decimal odds to implied probability
Calculate the joint probability of a pitcher allowing a certain amount of hits and the opposing team scoring a certain amount of runs.
wdt_ID
Pitcher Name
Pitcher Hits Allowed Line
Opposing Team Runs Scored Line
Joint Probability of Both Going Over
Number of Games Pitched This Season
193762
Pitcher Name
Pitcher Hits Allowed Line
Opposing Team Runs Scored Line
How to use this page:
As the games are going on, the sportsbooks constantly update the odds for a particular team winning, depending on the score, the inning, the number of outs, and the runners on. We’ve used machine learning to get you the exact win probability for every possible game state imaginable.
1. Enter what team you want the win probability for (Home/Away)
2. Enter what inning it is (number and top or bottom) as well as how many outs there are
3. Enter the run differential (If you want the score for the home team and they’re losing 5-1, you put -4 for run differential. If they’re winning 5-1, you put 4)
4. Enter yes/no whether there’s a runner on 1st, 2nd or 3rd.
5. Using the second table, type in the odds DraftKings or FanDuel (any sportbook really) is giving you, to get their implied market probability. If there’s a significant difference between our model’s win probability and the sportsbook’s win probability, it’s potentially a bet worth placing!
IMPORTANT: This current version is a non-team specific probability. It is not considering who the current pitcher is, who’s at bat, whether it’s a terrible team vs the best team in baseball, or anything besides what’s in the dropdown options. Down the line, we plan on releasing a more sophisticated team-specific model.
Live In Game Probability Update
Get any team's live in game win probability by using our model trained on 10+ years of data.
wdt_ID
Home/Away
Inning
Top/Bottom Inning
Outs
Run Difference
Runner on 1B
Runner on 2B
Runner on 3B
Probability of Win
team_batting
preds
1
Away
12
Bottom
2
5
No
Yes
No
99.95%
0
1
Home/Away
Inning
Top/Bottom Inning
Outs
Run Difference
Runner on 1B
Runner on 2B
Runner on 3B
Odds Calculator
Convert american or decimal odds to implied probability
wdt_ID
American Odds
Decimal Odds
Implied Probability
4002
-10000
1.01
99.01%
American Odds
Decimal Odds
Congratulations, you're officially ready to start placing bets as a member of AI Betting Edge! If you're a seasoned sports bettor, much of the content below won't be new information for you. However, we advise everyone to skim through this guide at least once before diving in and placing bets.
Q. Where should I go to place the bets you post?
For MLB season, 90% of our bets are on DraftKings. DraftKings offers pitcher walk props which have been our hottest market. FanDuel DOES NOT offer walk props. To ensure you catch all of our posted plays, definitely sign up for DraftKings. If you can't for whatever reason, Caesars also offers walk props but not the creative alt lines that DraftKings offers.
Q. How many bets do you post daily?
This depends a lot on the slate size (number of games that day), and how sharp the lines are. Generally we post anywhere from 1-5 bets daily. We also post all our machine learning predictions in case you want to make your own bets.
Q. What happens if the odds are different than what you post, or the line itself has moved?
Obviously, the betting market is indeed a market, and there's no guarantee that if we post a bet at -130, by the time you go to place it it's not at -140. Typically things don't move THAT quickly, but they certainly do from time to time. Our general recommendation is, if the odds move, you should still place the bet. However if the LINE moves (we post an over 5.5 assists bet and when you go to place it, the line is 6.5), we recommend not placing the bet. A lot of people think "Oh what's the difference it's only 1 more strikeout", trust me, it's ALL of the difference. We're dealing with razor thin margins here.
Q. How much should I bet more on bets that you post?
We recommend betting 1 unit on every bet we post. This will ensure you're profitable.
Q. Do you post only straight bets or both straight bets and parlays?
Both. We try to ensure that the odds are always better than -160. So if our model really likes a bet, but its -190, we'll often parlay it with what we call "layup legs". These are simply >90% bets that almost always hit. On the other hand if the odds are -120 for a straight bet, we won't parlay it with anything.
Bet Recap 10/9/23
Alright so 5/10 this week with NFL bets. Not a good week. We'll get better as the season progresses. Let's dig into the bets and see what went right/wrong.
Thursday
DJ Moore - hit easily
Sunday
Stefon Diggs/Bills ML parlay - shouldn't have added the second leg, got a bit greedy there. Diggs hit and we should have won that as a straight bet.
Trevor Lawrence under 36.5 completions - he ended up with 37. This one hurt, the Bills literally just couldn't stay on the field. They started the game with like 4 straight 3 and outs - clearly the time difference affected them.
Zay Flowers over receptions - hit easily
Jonnu Smith Dolphins parlay - hit easily
Adam Thilien over receptions - hit easily
Jamarr Chase over receptions - hit easily
Monday
Davante Adams - he had FIFTY targets entering last nights game through 4 games. Somehow he was only targeted 4 times last night in a supposed to be revenge game. Very strange
Romeo Doubs - was their leading receiver entering last nights game, the Raiders had been particularly bad at giving up short passes in the middle of the field, Jordan Love was just horrible and kept throwing picks anytime he targeted Doubs. Last night was just a weird game where the data pointed one way and the results went the other way.
The next few weeks are going to be light, MLB is done and all we have in NFL until NBA kicks off end of October. But we want to wait till about November 10th before we starting betting on NBA - need 1-2 weeks of game data for the predictions to be solid. We will get back into the swing of things, and I'm confident NFL will get better. If you want to just wait for NBA that's an option too.
MLB Hit Rate - 260/383 67.8% on the year.
NFL Hit Rate - 6/14 - 42% This number will go up as the season progresses
Our season to date success rate when blindly trusting the model is 62% over walks, 61% over strikeouts, 58% under walks, and 56% under strikeouts. When we post our recommended bets, it's the combination of our AI model and human analysis that leads to a 68% success rate. Just be cautious when blindly trusting the model.
George Box once said, "All models are wrong, some are useful." Truer words were never spoken.
Over Walks Predictions old
wdt_ID
Player Name
Game Date
Over/Under
Market Implied Probability
Predicted Over Probability
1805
Patrick Sandoval
05/01/2024
1.50
64.91%
62.61%
1806
Dakota Hudson
05/01/2024
1.50
60.0%
61.67%
1807
Chris Bassitt
05/01/2024
1.50
47.62%
58.67%
1808
Kenta Maeda
05/01/2024
1.50
58.33%
54.73%
1809
Ross Stripling
05/01/2024
1.50
51.22%
53.79%
1810
Joe Musgrove
05/01/2024
1.50
58.33%
53.13%
1811
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
05/01/2024
1.50
57.45%
52.13%
1812
Chris Flexen
05/01/2024
1.50
62.26%
52.01%
1813
Seth Lugo
05/01/2024
1.50
57.45%
51.96%
1814
Trevor Williams
05/01/2024
1.50
60.0%
50.34%
Under Walks Predictions old
wdt_ID
Player Name
Game Date
Over/Under
Market Implied Probability
Predicted Under Probability
1788
Quinn Priester
05/01/2024
2.50
65.52%
78.01%
1789
Corbin Burnes
05/01/2024
2.50
62.26%
75.53%
1790
Shota Imanaga
05/01/2024
1.50
64.29%
68.06%
1791
Triston McKenzie
05/01/2024
2.50
63.64%
67.76%
1792
Bailey Ober
05/01/2024
1.50
67.21%
67.28%
1793
Miles Mikolas
05/01/2024
1.50
62.26%
66.73%
1794
Zach Eflin
05/01/2024
1.50
62.26%
62.39%
1795
Colin Rea
05/01/2024
1.50
58.33%
60.43%
1796
Andrew Heaney
05/01/2024
1.50
53.49%
58.76%
1797
Zack Wheeler
05/01/2024
1.50
56.52%
58.36%
Over Strikeouts Predictions old
wdt_ID
Player Name
Game Date
Over/Under
Market Implied Probability
Exact Prediction
Predicted Over Probability
1802
Dakota Hudson
05/01/2024
2.50
63.64%
3.45
68.62%
1803
Ross Stripling
05/01/2024
4.50
50.0%
4.96
59.51%
1804
Quinn Priester
05/01/2024
4.50
61.54%
5.22
59.34%
1805
Graham Ashcraft
05/01/2024
4.50
47.62%
4.85
55.14%
1806
Jose Butto
05/01/2024
5.50
54.55%
5.93
55.11%
1807
Patrick Sandoval
05/01/2024
5.50
52.38%
5.57
51.13%
1808
Shota Imanaga
05/01/2024
4.50
58.33%
4.46
49.56%
1809
Justin Verlander
05/01/2024
5.50
45.45%
5.22
46.85%
1810
Bailey Ober
05/01/2024
5.50
51.22%
5.20
46.39%
1811
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
05/01/2024
5.50
46.51%
5.06
44.56%
Under Strikeouts Predictions old
wdt_ID
Player Name
Game Date
Over/Under
Market Implied Probability
Exact Prediction
Predicted Under Probability
1800
Chris Flexen
05/01/2024
4.50
62.26%
3.26
79.84%
1801
Zach Eflin
05/01/2024
5.50
60.0%
3.94
78.47%
1802
Jordan Montgomery
05/01/2024
4.50
58.33%
3.23
72.96%
1803
Kenta Maeda
05/01/2024
4.50
53.49%
3.68
66.43%
1804
Triston McKenzie
05/01/2024
4.50
60.78%
3.37
65.58%
1805
Colin Rea
05/01/2024
4.50
53.49%
3.79
63.85%
1806
Chris Bassitt
05/01/2024
4.50
47.62%
3.64
63.53%
1807
Joe Musgrove
05/01/2024
6.50
59.18%
5.81
63.05%
1808
Andrew Heaney
05/01/2024
4.50
60.0%
3.55
62.11%
1809
Seth Lugo
05/01/2024
4.50
58.33%
3.78
59.66%
Over Hits Predictions old
wdt_ID
Player Name
Game Date
Over/Under
Market Implied Probability
Exact Prediction
Predicted Over Probability
1385
Andrew Heaney
05/01/2024
4.50
61.54%
5.20
65.46%
1386
Zack Wheeler
05/01/2024
4.50
58.33%
5.35
63.97%
1387
Bailey Ober
05/01/2024
4.50
55.56%
5.27
60.13%
1388
Kutter Crawford
05/01/2024
4.50
62.96%
5.29
58.92%
1389
Triston McKenzie
05/01/2024
4.50
56.52%
4.90
58.06%
1390
Joe Musgrove
05/01/2024
4.50
56.52%
4.96
57.02%
1391
Luis Gil
05/01/2024
4.50
59.18%
4.78
54.89%
1392
Corbin Burnes
05/01/2024
4.50
48.78%
4.86
54.64%
1393
Colin Rea
05/01/2024
5.50
44.44%
5.71
53.5%
1394
Kenta Maeda
05/01/2024
4.50
61.54%
4.68
52.57%
Under Hits Predictions old
Player Name
wdt_ID
Game Date
Over/Under
Market Implied Probability
Exact Prediction
Predicted Under Probability
Chris Flexen
1370
2024-05-01
5.5
60.0%
4.4940734
62.99%
Justin Verlander
1371
2024-05-01
5.5
55.56%
4.854916
62.17%
Dakota Hudson
1372
2024-05-01
6.5
57.45%
5.684455
62.13%
Miles Mikolas
1373
2024-05-01
6.5
54.55%
5.776083
59.76%
Seth Lugo
1374
2024-05-01
6.5
62.26%
5.7365
59.01%
Shota Imanaga
1375
2024-05-01
5.5
62.26%
4.9883323
58.79%
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
1376
2024-05-01
5.5
60.0%
5.1008363
57.37%
Trevor Williams
1377
2024-05-01
5.5
54.55%
5.2182055
55.43%
Patrick Sandoval
1378
2024-05-01
5.5
56.52%
5.125405
55.38%
Ross Stripling
1379
2024-05-01
5.5
57.45%
5.3271947
52.06%
Over Outs Predictions old
Player Name
Game Date
Over/Under
Market Implied Probability
Exact Prediction
Predicted Over Probability
wdt_ID
Luis Gil
2024-05-01
15.5
50.0%
16.312172
54.78%
1236
Zack Wheeler
2024-05-01
18.5
50.0%
19.027063
52.83%
1237
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
2024-05-01
15.5
55.56%
15.927884
52.32%
1238
Colin Rea
2024-05-01
15.5
48.78%
15.90167
52.32%
1239
Patrick Sandoval
2024-05-01
16.5
50.0%
16.71748
51.32%
1240
Graham Ashcraft
2024-05-01
17.5
60.0%
17.586697
50.48%
1241
Dakota Hudson
2024-05-01
15.5
53.49%
15.572465
50.42%
1242
Corbin Burnes
2024-05-01
16.5
58.33%
16.50232
50.01%
1243
Ross Stripling
2024-05-01
16.5
50.0%
16.414318
49.5%
1244
Shota Imanaga
2024-05-01
17.5
52.38%
17.389748
49.45%
1245
Under Outs Predictions old
Player Name
Game Date
Exact Prediction
Over/Under
Market Implied Probability
Predicted Under Probability
wdt_ID
Chris Bassitt
2024-05-01
17.198654
18.5
65.52%
57.4%
1200
Kenta Maeda
2024-05-01
14.288654
15.5
56.52%
57.07%
1201
Miles Mikolas
2024-05-01
16.423141
17.5
51.22%
56.53%
1202
Trevor Williams
2024-05-01
14.4420805
15.5
57.45%
56.35%
1203
Joe Musgrove
2024-05-01
16.469662
17.5
52.38%
55.97%
1204
Jose Butto
2024-05-01
15.486002
16.5
54.55%
55.26%
1205
Kutter Crawford
2024-05-01
16.683558
17.5
55.56%
55.0%
1206
Seth Lugo
2024-05-01
16.704185
17.5
45.45%
54.28%
1207
Chris Flexen
2024-05-01
13.82266
14.5
43.48%
53.69%
1208
Zach Eflin
2024-05-01
16.982737
17.5
48.78%
53.02%
1209
You must be a registered user to participate in this chat.
Implied Probability Calculator
Kelly Criterion Calculator
Layup Legs Joint Probability Calculator
Live In Game Win Probability Calculator
Odds Calculator
Convert american or decimal odds to implied probability
Calculate the joint probability of a pitcher allowing a certain amount of hits and the opposing team scoring a certain amount of runs.
wdt_ID
Pitcher Name
Pitcher Hits Allowed Line
Opposing Team Runs Scored Line
Joint Probability of Both Going Over
Number of Games Pitched This Season
193762
Pitcher Name
Pitcher Hits Allowed Line
Opposing Team Runs Scored Line
How to use this page:
As the games are going on, the sportsbooks constantly update the odds for a particular team winning, depending on the score, the inning, the number of outs, and the runners on. We’ve used machine learning to get you the exact win probability for every possible game state imaginable.
1. Enter what team you want the win probability for (Home/Away)
2. Enter what inning it is (number and top or bottom) as well as how many outs there are
3. Enter the run differential (If you want the score for the home team and they’re losing 5-1, you put -4 for run differential. If they’re winning 5-1, you put 4)
4. Enter yes/no whether there’s a runner on 1st, 2nd or 3rd.
5. Using the second table, type in the odds DraftKings or FanDuel (any sportbook really) is giving you, to get their implied market probability. If there’s a significant difference between our model’s win probability and the sportsbook’s win probability, it’s potentially a bet worth placing!
IMPORTANT: This current version is a non-team specific probability. It is not considering who the current pitcher is, who’s at bat, whether it’s a terrible team vs the best team in baseball, or anything besides what’s in the dropdown options. Down the line, we plan on releasing a more sophisticated team-specific model.
Live In Game Probability Update
Get any team's live in game win probability by using our model trained on 10+ years of data.
wdt_ID
Home/Away
Inning
Top/Bottom Inning
Outs
Run Difference
Runner on 1B
Runner on 2B
Runner on 3B
Probability of Win
team_batting
preds
1
Away
12
Bottom
2
5
No
Yes
No
99.95%
0
1
Home/Away
Inning
Top/Bottom Inning
Outs
Run Difference
Runner on 1B
Runner on 2B
Runner on 3B
Odds Calculator
Convert american or decimal odds to implied probability
wdt_ID
American Odds
Decimal Odds
Implied Probability
4002
-10000
1.01
99.01%
American Odds
Decimal Odds
Congratulations, you're officially ready to start placing bets as a member of AI Betting Edge! If you're a seasoned sports bettor, much of the content below won't be new information for you. However, we advise everyone to skim through this guide at least once before diving in and placing bets.
Q. Where should I go to place the bets you post?
For MLB season, 90% of our bets are on DraftKings. DraftKings offers pitcher walk props which have been our hottest market. FanDuel DOES NOT offer walk props. To ensure you catch all of our posted plays, definitely sign up for DraftKings. If you can't for whatever reason, Caesars also offers walk props but not the creative alt lines that DraftKings offers.
Q. How many bets do you post daily?
This depends a lot on the slate size (number of games that day), and how sharp the lines are. Generally we post anywhere from 1-5 bets daily. We also post all our machine learning predictions in case you want to make your own bets.
Q. What happens if the odds are different than what you post, or the line itself has moved?
Obviously, the betting market is indeed a market, and there's no guarantee that if we post a bet at -130, by the time you go to place it it's not at -140. Typically things don't move THAT quickly, but they certainly do from time to time. Our general recommendation is, if the odds move, you should still place the bet. However if the LINE moves (we post an over 5.5 assists bet and when you go to place it, the line is 6.5), we recommend not placing the bet. A lot of people think "Oh what's the difference it's only 1 more strikeout", trust me, it's ALL of the difference. We're dealing with razor thin margins here.
Q. How much should I bet more on bets that you post?
We recommend betting 1 unit on every bet we post. This will ensure you're profitable.
Q. Do you post only straight bets or both straight bets and parlays?
Both. We try to ensure that the odds are always better than -160. So if our model really likes a bet, but its -190, we'll often parlay it with what we call "layup legs". These are simply >90% bets that almost always hit. On the other hand if the odds are -120 for a straight bet, we won't parlay it with anything.
Bet Recap 10/9/23
Alright so 5/10 this week with NFL bets. Not a good week. We'll get better as the season progresses. Let's dig into the bets and see what went right/wrong.
Thursday
DJ Moore - hit easily
Sunday
Stefon Diggs/Bills ML parlay - shouldn't have added the second leg, got a bit greedy there. Diggs hit and we should have won that as a straight bet.
Trevor Lawrence under 36.5 completions - he ended up with 37. This one hurt, the Bills literally just couldn't stay on the field. They started the game with like 4 straight 3 and outs - clearly the time difference affected them.
Zay Flowers over receptions - hit easily
Jonnu Smith Dolphins parlay - hit easily
Adam Thilien over receptions - hit easily
Jamarr Chase over receptions - hit easily
Monday
Davante Adams - he had FIFTY targets entering last nights game through 4 games. Somehow he was only targeted 4 times last night in a supposed to be revenge game. Very strange
Romeo Doubs - was their leading receiver entering last nights game, the Raiders had been particularly bad at giving up short passes in the middle of the field, Jordan Love was just horrible and kept throwing picks anytime he targeted Doubs. Last night was just a weird game where the data pointed one way and the results went the other way.
The next few weeks are going to be light, MLB is done and all we have in NFL until NBA kicks off end of October. But we want to wait till about November 10th before we starting betting on NBA - need 1-2 weeks of game data for the predictions to be solid. We will get back into the swing of things, and I'm confident NFL will get better. If you want to just wait for NBA that's an option too.
MLB Hit Rate - 260/383 67.8% on the year.
NFL Hit Rate - 6/14 - 42% This number will go up as the season progresses
Our season to date success rate when blindly trusting the model is 62% over walks, 61% over strikeouts, 58% under walks, and 56% under strikeouts. When we post our recommended bets, it's the combination of our AI model and human analysis that leads to a 68% success rate. Just be cautious when blindly trusting the model.
George Box once said, "All models are wrong, some are useful." Truer words were never spoken.
Over Walks Predictions old
wdt_ID
Player Name
Game Date
Over/Under
Market Implied Probability
Predicted Over Probability
1805
Patrick Sandoval
05/01/2024
1.50
64.91%
62.61%
1806
Dakota Hudson
05/01/2024
1.50
60.0%
61.67%
1807
Chris Bassitt
05/01/2024
1.50
47.62%
58.67%
1808
Kenta Maeda
05/01/2024
1.50
58.33%
54.73%
1809
Ross Stripling
05/01/2024
1.50
51.22%
53.79%
1810
Joe Musgrove
05/01/2024
1.50
58.33%
53.13%
1811
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
05/01/2024
1.50
57.45%
52.13%
1812
Chris Flexen
05/01/2024
1.50
62.26%
52.01%
1813
Seth Lugo
05/01/2024
1.50
57.45%
51.96%
1814
Trevor Williams
05/01/2024
1.50
60.0%
50.34%
Under Walks Predictions old
wdt_ID
Player Name
Game Date
Over/Under
Market Implied Probability
Predicted Under Probability
1788
Quinn Priester
05/01/2024
2.50
65.52%
78.01%
1789
Corbin Burnes
05/01/2024
2.50
62.26%
75.53%
1790
Shota Imanaga
05/01/2024
1.50
64.29%
68.06%
1791
Triston McKenzie
05/01/2024
2.50
63.64%
67.76%
1792
Bailey Ober
05/01/2024
1.50
67.21%
67.28%
1793
Miles Mikolas
05/01/2024
1.50
62.26%
66.73%
1794
Zach Eflin
05/01/2024
1.50
62.26%
62.39%
1795
Colin Rea
05/01/2024
1.50
58.33%
60.43%
1796
Andrew Heaney
05/01/2024
1.50
53.49%
58.76%
1797
Zack Wheeler
05/01/2024
1.50
56.52%
58.36%
Over Strikeouts Predictions old
wdt_ID
Player Name
Game Date
Over/Under
Market Implied Probability
Exact Prediction
Predicted Over Probability
1802
Dakota Hudson
05/01/2024
2.50
63.64%
3.45
68.62%
1803
Ross Stripling
05/01/2024
4.50
50.0%
4.96
59.51%
1804
Quinn Priester
05/01/2024
4.50
61.54%
5.22
59.34%
1805
Graham Ashcraft
05/01/2024
4.50
47.62%
4.85
55.14%
1806
Jose Butto
05/01/2024
5.50
54.55%
5.93
55.11%
1807
Patrick Sandoval
05/01/2024
5.50
52.38%
5.57
51.13%
1808
Shota Imanaga
05/01/2024
4.50
58.33%
4.46
49.56%
1809
Justin Verlander
05/01/2024
5.50
45.45%
5.22
46.85%
1810
Bailey Ober
05/01/2024
5.50
51.22%
5.20
46.39%
1811
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
05/01/2024
5.50
46.51%
5.06
44.56%
Under Strikeouts Predictions old
wdt_ID
Player Name
Game Date
Over/Under
Market Implied Probability
Exact Prediction
Predicted Under Probability
1800
Chris Flexen
05/01/2024
4.50
62.26%
3.26
79.84%
1801
Zach Eflin
05/01/2024
5.50
60.0%
3.94
78.47%
1802
Jordan Montgomery
05/01/2024
4.50
58.33%
3.23
72.96%
1803
Kenta Maeda
05/01/2024
4.50
53.49%
3.68
66.43%
1804
Triston McKenzie
05/01/2024
4.50
60.78%
3.37
65.58%
1805
Colin Rea
05/01/2024
4.50
53.49%
3.79
63.85%
1806
Chris Bassitt
05/01/2024
4.50
47.62%
3.64
63.53%
1807
Joe Musgrove
05/01/2024
6.50
59.18%
5.81
63.05%
1808
Andrew Heaney
05/01/2024
4.50
60.0%
3.55
62.11%
1809
Seth Lugo
05/01/2024
4.50
58.33%
3.78
59.66%
Over Hits Predictions old
wdt_ID
Player Name
Game Date
Over/Under
Market Implied Probability
Exact Prediction
Predicted Over Probability
1385
Andrew Heaney
05/01/2024
4.50
61.54%
5.20
65.46%
1386
Zack Wheeler
05/01/2024
4.50
58.33%
5.35
63.97%
1387
Bailey Ober
05/01/2024
4.50
55.56%
5.27
60.13%
1388
Kutter Crawford
05/01/2024
4.50
62.96%
5.29
58.92%
1389
Triston McKenzie
05/01/2024
4.50
56.52%
4.90
58.06%
1390
Joe Musgrove
05/01/2024
4.50
56.52%
4.96
57.02%
1391
Luis Gil
05/01/2024
4.50
59.18%
4.78
54.89%
1392
Corbin Burnes
05/01/2024
4.50
48.78%
4.86
54.64%
1393
Colin Rea
05/01/2024
5.50
44.44%
5.71
53.5%
1394
Kenta Maeda
05/01/2024
4.50
61.54%
4.68
52.57%
Under Hits Predictions old
Player Name
wdt_ID
Game Date
Over/Under
Market Implied Probability
Exact Prediction
Predicted Under Probability
Chris Flexen
1370
2024-05-01
5.5
60.0%
4.4940734
62.99%
Justin Verlander
1371
2024-05-01
5.5
55.56%
4.854916
62.17%
Dakota Hudson
1372
2024-05-01
6.5
57.45%
5.684455
62.13%
Miles Mikolas
1373
2024-05-01
6.5
54.55%
5.776083
59.76%
Seth Lugo
1374
2024-05-01
6.5
62.26%
5.7365
59.01%
Shota Imanaga
1375
2024-05-01
5.5
62.26%
4.9883323
58.79%
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
1376
2024-05-01
5.5
60.0%
5.1008363
57.37%
Trevor Williams
1377
2024-05-01
5.5
54.55%
5.2182055
55.43%
Patrick Sandoval
1378
2024-05-01
5.5
56.52%
5.125405
55.38%
Ross Stripling
1379
2024-05-01
5.5
57.45%
5.3271947
52.06%
Over Outs Predictions old
Player Name
Game Date
Over/Under
Market Implied Probability
Exact Prediction
Predicted Over Probability
wdt_ID
Luis Gil
2024-05-01
15.5
50.0%
16.312172
54.78%
1236
Zack Wheeler
2024-05-01
18.5
50.0%
19.027063
52.83%
1237
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
2024-05-01
15.5
55.56%
15.927884
52.32%
1238
Colin Rea
2024-05-01
15.5
48.78%
15.90167
52.32%
1239
Patrick Sandoval
2024-05-01
16.5
50.0%
16.71748
51.32%
1240
Graham Ashcraft
2024-05-01
17.5
60.0%
17.586697
50.48%
1241
Dakota Hudson
2024-05-01
15.5
53.49%
15.572465
50.42%
1242
Corbin Burnes
2024-05-01
16.5
58.33%
16.50232
50.01%
1243
Ross Stripling
2024-05-01
16.5
50.0%
16.414318
49.5%
1244
Shota Imanaga
2024-05-01
17.5
52.38%
17.389748
49.45%
1245
Under Outs Predictions old
Player Name
Game Date
Exact Prediction
Over/Under
Market Implied Probability
Predicted Under Probability
wdt_ID
Chris Bassitt
2024-05-01
17.198654
18.5
65.52%
57.4%
1200
Kenta Maeda
2024-05-01
14.288654
15.5
56.52%
57.07%
1201
Miles Mikolas
2024-05-01
16.423141
17.5
51.22%
56.53%
1202
Trevor Williams
2024-05-01
14.4420805
15.5
57.45%
56.35%
1203
Joe Musgrove
2024-05-01
16.469662
17.5
52.38%
55.97%
1204
Jose Butto
2024-05-01
15.486002
16.5
54.55%
55.26%
1205
Kutter Crawford
2024-05-01
16.683558
17.5
55.56%
55.0%
1206
Seth Lugo
2024-05-01
16.704185
17.5
45.45%
54.28%
1207
Chris Flexen
2024-05-01
13.82266
14.5
43.48%
53.69%
1208
Zach Eflin
2024-05-01
16.982737
17.5
48.78%
53.02%
1209
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Implied Probability Calculator
Kelly Criterion Calculator
Layup Legs Joint Probability Calculator
Live In Game Win Probability Calculator
Odds Calculator
Convert american or decimal odds to implied probability
Calculate the joint probability of a pitcher allowing a certain amount of hits and the opposing team scoring a certain amount of runs.
wdt_ID
Pitcher Name
Pitcher Hits Allowed Line
Opposing Team Runs Scored Line
Joint Probability of Both Going Over
Number of Games Pitched This Season
193762
Pitcher Name
Pitcher Hits Allowed Line
Opposing Team Runs Scored Line
How to use this page:
As the games are going on, the sportsbooks constantly update the odds for a particular team winning, depending on the score, the inning, the number of outs, and the runners on. We’ve used machine learning to get you the exact win probability for every possible game state imaginable.
1. Enter what team you want the win probability for (Home/Away)
2. Enter what inning it is (number and top or bottom) as well as how many outs there are
3. Enter the run differential (If you want the score for the home team and they’re losing 5-1, you put -4 for run differential. If they’re winning 5-1, you put 4)
4. Enter yes/no whether there’s a runner on 1st, 2nd or 3rd.
5. Using the second table, type in the odds DraftKings or FanDuel (any sportbook really) is giving you, to get their implied market probability. If there’s a significant difference between our model’s win probability and the sportsbook’s win probability, it’s potentially a bet worth placing!
IMPORTANT: This current version is a non-team specific probability. It is not considering who the current pitcher is, who’s at bat, whether it’s a terrible team vs the best team in baseball, or anything besides what’s in the dropdown options. Down the line, we plan on releasing a more sophisticated team-specific model.
Live In Game Probability Update
Get any team's live in game win probability by using our model trained on 10+ years of data.
wdt_ID
Home/Away
Inning
Top/Bottom Inning
Outs
Run Difference
Runner on 1B
Runner on 2B
Runner on 3B
Probability of Win
team_batting
preds
1
Away
12
Bottom
2
5
No
Yes
No
99.95%
0
1
Home/Away
Inning
Top/Bottom Inning
Outs
Run Difference
Runner on 1B
Runner on 2B
Runner on 3B
Odds Calculator
Convert american or decimal odds to implied probability
wdt_ID
American Odds
Decimal Odds
Implied Probability
4002
-10000
1.01
99.01%
American Odds
Decimal Odds
Congratulations, you're officially ready to start placing bets as a member of AI Betting Edge! If you're a seasoned sports bettor, much of the content below won't be new information for you. However, we advise everyone to skim through this guide at least once before diving in and placing bets.
Q. Where should I go to place the bets you post?
For MLB season, 90% of our bets are on DraftKings. DraftKings offers pitcher walk props which have been our hottest market. FanDuel DOES NOT offer walk props. To ensure you catch all of our posted plays, definitely sign up for DraftKings. If you can't for whatever reason, Caesars also offers walk props but not the creative alt lines that DraftKings offers.
Q. How many bets do you post daily?
This depends a lot on the slate size (number of games that day), and how sharp the lines are. Generally we post anywhere from 1-5 bets daily. We also post all our machine learning predictions in case you want to make your own bets.
Q. What happens if the odds are different than what you post, or the line itself has moved?
Obviously, the betting market is indeed a market, and there's no guarantee that if we post a bet at -130, by the time you go to place it it's not at -140. Typically things don't move THAT quickly, but they certainly do from time to time. Our general recommendation is, if the odds move, you should still place the bet. However if the LINE moves (we post an over 5.5 assists bet and when you go to place it, the line is 6.5), we recommend not placing the bet. A lot of people think "Oh what's the difference it's only 1 more strikeout", trust me, it's ALL of the difference. We're dealing with razor thin margins here.
Q. How much should I bet more on bets that you post?
We recommend betting 1 unit on every bet we post. This will ensure you're profitable.
Q. Do you post only straight bets or both straight bets and parlays?
Both. We try to ensure that the odds are always better than -160. So if our model really likes a bet, but its -190, we'll often parlay it with what we call "layup legs". These are simply >90% bets that almost always hit. On the other hand if the odds are -120 for a straight bet, we won't parlay it with anything.
Bet Recap 10/9/23
Alright so 5/10 this week with NFL bets. Not a good week. We'll get better as the season progresses. Let's dig into the bets and see what went right/wrong.
Thursday
DJ Moore - hit easily
Sunday
Stefon Diggs/Bills ML parlay - shouldn't have added the second leg, got a bit greedy there. Diggs hit and we should have won that as a straight bet.
Trevor Lawrence under 36.5 completions - he ended up with 37. This one hurt, the Bills literally just couldn't stay on the field. They started the game with like 4 straight 3 and outs - clearly the time difference affected them.
Zay Flowers over receptions - hit easily
Jonnu Smith Dolphins parlay - hit easily
Adam Thilien over receptions - hit easily
Jamarr Chase over receptions - hit easily
Monday
Davante Adams - he had FIFTY targets entering last nights game through 4 games. Somehow he was only targeted 4 times last night in a supposed to be revenge game. Very strange
Romeo Doubs - was their leading receiver entering last nights game, the Raiders had been particularly bad at giving up short passes in the middle of the field, Jordan Love was just horrible and kept throwing picks anytime he targeted Doubs. Last night was just a weird game where the data pointed one way and the results went the other way.
The next few weeks are going to be light, MLB is done and all we have in NFL until NBA kicks off end of October. But we want to wait till about November 10th before we starting betting on NBA - need 1-2 weeks of game data for the predictions to be solid. We will get back into the swing of things, and I'm confident NFL will get better. If you want to just wait for NBA that's an option too.
MLB Hit Rate - 260/383 67.8% on the year.
NFL Hit Rate - 6/14 - 42% This number will go up as the season progresses
Our season to date success rate when blindly trusting the model is 62% over walks, 61% over strikeouts, 58% under walks, and 56% under strikeouts. When we post our recommended bets, it's the combination of our AI model and human analysis that leads to a 68% success rate. Just be cautious when blindly trusting the model.
George Box once said, "All models are wrong, some are useful." Truer words were never spoken.
Over Walks Predictions old
wdt_ID
Player Name
Game Date
Over/Under
Market Implied Probability
Predicted Over Probability
1805
Patrick Sandoval
05/01/2024
1.50
64.91%
62.61%
1806
Dakota Hudson
05/01/2024
1.50
60.0%
61.67%
1807
Chris Bassitt
05/01/2024
1.50
47.62%
58.67%
1808
Kenta Maeda
05/01/2024
1.50
58.33%
54.73%
1809
Ross Stripling
05/01/2024
1.50
51.22%
53.79%
1810
Joe Musgrove
05/01/2024
1.50
58.33%
53.13%
1811
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
05/01/2024
1.50
57.45%
52.13%
1812
Chris Flexen
05/01/2024
1.50
62.26%
52.01%
1813
Seth Lugo
05/01/2024
1.50
57.45%
51.96%
1814
Trevor Williams
05/01/2024
1.50
60.0%
50.34%
Under Walks Predictions old
wdt_ID
Player Name
Game Date
Over/Under
Market Implied Probability
Predicted Under Probability
1788
Quinn Priester
05/01/2024
2.50
65.52%
78.01%
1789
Corbin Burnes
05/01/2024
2.50
62.26%
75.53%
1790
Shota Imanaga
05/01/2024
1.50
64.29%
68.06%
1791
Triston McKenzie
05/01/2024
2.50
63.64%
67.76%
1792
Bailey Ober
05/01/2024
1.50
67.21%
67.28%
1793
Miles Mikolas
05/01/2024
1.50
62.26%
66.73%
1794
Zach Eflin
05/01/2024
1.50
62.26%
62.39%
1795
Colin Rea
05/01/2024
1.50
58.33%
60.43%
1796
Andrew Heaney
05/01/2024
1.50
53.49%
58.76%
1797
Zack Wheeler
05/01/2024
1.50
56.52%
58.36%
Over Strikeouts Predictions old
wdt_ID
Player Name
Game Date
Over/Under
Market Implied Probability
Exact Prediction
Predicted Over Probability
1802
Dakota Hudson
05/01/2024
2.50
63.64%
3.45
68.62%
1803
Ross Stripling
05/01/2024
4.50
50.0%
4.96
59.51%
1804
Quinn Priester
05/01/2024
4.50
61.54%
5.22
59.34%
1805
Graham Ashcraft
05/01/2024
4.50
47.62%
4.85
55.14%
1806
Jose Butto
05/01/2024
5.50
54.55%
5.93
55.11%
1807
Patrick Sandoval
05/01/2024
5.50
52.38%
5.57
51.13%
1808
Shota Imanaga
05/01/2024
4.50
58.33%
4.46
49.56%
1809
Justin Verlander
05/01/2024
5.50
45.45%
5.22
46.85%
1810
Bailey Ober
05/01/2024
5.50
51.22%
5.20
46.39%
1811
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
05/01/2024
5.50
46.51%
5.06
44.56%
Under Strikeouts Predictions old
wdt_ID
Player Name
Game Date
Over/Under
Market Implied Probability
Exact Prediction
Predicted Under Probability
1800
Chris Flexen
05/01/2024
4.50
62.26%
3.26
79.84%
1801
Zach Eflin
05/01/2024
5.50
60.0%
3.94
78.47%
1802
Jordan Montgomery
05/01/2024
4.50
58.33%
3.23
72.96%
1803
Kenta Maeda
05/01/2024
4.50
53.49%
3.68
66.43%
1804
Triston McKenzie
05/01/2024
4.50
60.78%
3.37
65.58%
1805
Colin Rea
05/01/2024
4.50
53.49%
3.79
63.85%
1806
Chris Bassitt
05/01/2024
4.50
47.62%
3.64
63.53%
1807
Joe Musgrove
05/01/2024
6.50
59.18%
5.81
63.05%
1808
Andrew Heaney
05/01/2024
4.50
60.0%
3.55
62.11%
1809
Seth Lugo
05/01/2024
4.50
58.33%
3.78
59.66%
Over Hits Predictions old
wdt_ID
Player Name
Game Date
Over/Under
Market Implied Probability
Exact Prediction
Predicted Over Probability
1385
Andrew Heaney
05/01/2024
4.50
61.54%
5.20
65.46%
1386
Zack Wheeler
05/01/2024
4.50
58.33%
5.35
63.97%
1387
Bailey Ober
05/01/2024
4.50
55.56%
5.27
60.13%
1388
Kutter Crawford
05/01/2024
4.50
62.96%
5.29
58.92%
1389
Triston McKenzie
05/01/2024
4.50
56.52%
4.90
58.06%
1390
Joe Musgrove
05/01/2024
4.50
56.52%
4.96
57.02%
1391
Luis Gil
05/01/2024
4.50
59.18%
4.78
54.89%
1392
Corbin Burnes
05/01/2024
4.50
48.78%
4.86
54.64%
1393
Colin Rea
05/01/2024
5.50
44.44%
5.71
53.5%
1394
Kenta Maeda
05/01/2024
4.50
61.54%
4.68
52.57%
Under Hits Predictions old
Player Name
wdt_ID
Game Date
Over/Under
Market Implied Probability
Exact Prediction
Predicted Under Probability
Chris Flexen
1370
2024-05-01
5.5
60.0%
4.4940734
62.99%
Justin Verlander
1371
2024-05-01
5.5
55.56%
4.854916
62.17%
Dakota Hudson
1372
2024-05-01
6.5
57.45%
5.684455
62.13%
Miles Mikolas
1373
2024-05-01
6.5
54.55%
5.776083
59.76%
Seth Lugo
1374
2024-05-01
6.5
62.26%
5.7365
59.01%
Shota Imanaga
1375
2024-05-01
5.5
62.26%
4.9883323
58.79%
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
1376
2024-05-01
5.5
60.0%
5.1008363
57.37%
Trevor Williams
1377
2024-05-01
5.5
54.55%
5.2182055
55.43%
Patrick Sandoval
1378
2024-05-01
5.5
56.52%
5.125405
55.38%
Ross Stripling
1379
2024-05-01
5.5
57.45%
5.3271947
52.06%
Over Outs Predictions old
Player Name
Game Date
Over/Under
Market Implied Probability
Exact Prediction
Predicted Over Probability
wdt_ID
Luis Gil
2024-05-01
15.5
50.0%
16.312172
54.78%
1236
Zack Wheeler
2024-05-01
18.5
50.0%
19.027063
52.83%
1237
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
2024-05-01
15.5
55.56%
15.927884
52.32%
1238
Colin Rea
2024-05-01
15.5
48.78%
15.90167
52.32%
1239
Patrick Sandoval
2024-05-01
16.5
50.0%
16.71748
51.32%
1240
Graham Ashcraft
2024-05-01
17.5
60.0%
17.586697
50.48%
1241
Dakota Hudson
2024-05-01
15.5
53.49%
15.572465
50.42%
1242
Corbin Burnes
2024-05-01
16.5
58.33%
16.50232
50.01%
1243
Ross Stripling
2024-05-01
16.5
50.0%
16.414318
49.5%
1244
Shota Imanaga
2024-05-01
17.5
52.38%
17.389748
49.45%
1245
Under Outs Predictions old
Player Name
Game Date
Exact Prediction
Over/Under
Market Implied Probability
Predicted Under Probability
wdt_ID
Chris Bassitt
2024-05-01
17.198654
18.5
65.52%
57.4%
1200
Kenta Maeda
2024-05-01
14.288654
15.5
56.52%
57.07%
1201
Miles Mikolas
2024-05-01
16.423141
17.5
51.22%
56.53%
1202
Trevor Williams
2024-05-01
14.4420805
15.5
57.45%
56.35%
1203
Joe Musgrove
2024-05-01
16.469662
17.5
52.38%
55.97%
1204
Jose Butto
2024-05-01
15.486002
16.5
54.55%
55.26%
1205
Kutter Crawford
2024-05-01
16.683558
17.5
55.56%
55.0%
1206
Seth Lugo
2024-05-01
16.704185
17.5
45.45%
54.28%
1207
Chris Flexen
2024-05-01
13.82266
14.5
43.48%
53.69%
1208
Zach Eflin
2024-05-01
16.982737
17.5
48.78%
53.02%
1209
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Implied Probability Calculator
Kelly Criterion Calculator
Layup Legs Joint Probability Calculator
Live In Game Win Probability Calculator
Odds Calculator
Convert american or decimal odds to implied probability
Calculate the joint probability of a pitcher allowing a certain amount of hits and the opposing team scoring a certain amount of runs.
wdt_ID
Pitcher Name
Pitcher Hits Allowed Line
Opposing Team Runs Scored Line
Joint Probability of Both Going Over
Number of Games Pitched This Season
193762
Pitcher Name
Pitcher Hits Allowed Line
Opposing Team Runs Scored Line
How to use this page:
As the games are going on, the sportsbooks constantly update the odds for a particular team winning, depending on the score, the inning, the number of outs, and the runners on. We’ve used machine learning to get you the exact win probability for every possible game state imaginable.
1. Enter what team you want the win probability for (Home/Away)
2. Enter what inning it is (number and top or bottom) as well as how many outs there are
3. Enter the run differential (If you want the score for the home team and they’re losing 5-1, you put -4 for run differential. If they’re winning 5-1, you put 4)
4. Enter yes/no whether there’s a runner on 1st, 2nd or 3rd.
5. Using the second table, type in the odds DraftKings or FanDuel (any sportbook really) is giving you, to get their implied market probability. If there’s a significant difference between our model’s win probability and the sportsbook’s win probability, it’s potentially a bet worth placing!
IMPORTANT: This current version is a non-team specific probability. It is not considering who the current pitcher is, who’s at bat, whether it’s a terrible team vs the best team in baseball, or anything besides what’s in the dropdown options. Down the line, we plan on releasing a more sophisticated team-specific model.
Live In Game Probability Update
Get any team's live in game win probability by using our model trained on 10+ years of data.
wdt_ID
Home/Away
Inning
Top/Bottom Inning
Outs
Run Difference
Runner on 1B
Runner on 2B
Runner on 3B
Probability of Win
team_batting
preds
1
Away
12
Bottom
2
5
No
Yes
No
99.95%
0
1
Home/Away
Inning
Top/Bottom Inning
Outs
Run Difference
Runner on 1B
Runner on 2B
Runner on 3B
Odds Calculator
Convert american or decimal odds to implied probability
wdt_ID
American Odds
Decimal Odds
Implied Probability
4002
-10000
1.01
99.01%
American Odds
Decimal Odds
Congratulations, you're officially ready to start placing bets as a member of AI Betting Edge! If you're a seasoned sports bettor, much of the content below won't be new information for you. However, we advise everyone to skim through this guide at least once before diving in and placing bets.
Q. Where should I go to place the bets you post?
For MLB season, 90% of our bets are on DraftKings. DraftKings offers pitcher walk props which have been our hottest market. FanDuel DOES NOT offer walk props. To ensure you catch all of our posted plays, definitely sign up for DraftKings. If you can't for whatever reason, Caesars also offers walk props but not the creative alt lines that DraftKings offers.
Q. How many bets do you post daily?
This depends a lot on the slate size (number of games that day), and how sharp the lines are. Generally we post anywhere from 1-5 bets daily. We also post all our machine learning predictions in case you want to make your own bets.
Q. What happens if the odds are different than what you post, or the line itself has moved?
Obviously, the betting market is indeed a market, and there's no guarantee that if we post a bet at -130, by the time you go to place it it's not at -140. Typically things don't move THAT quickly, but they certainly do from time to time. Our general recommendation is, if the odds move, you should still place the bet. However if the LINE moves (we post an over 5.5 assists bet and when you go to place it, the line is 6.5), we recommend not placing the bet. A lot of people think "Oh what's the difference it's only 1 more strikeout", trust me, it's ALL of the difference. We're dealing with razor thin margins here.
Q. How much should I bet more on bets that you post?
We recommend betting 1 unit on every bet we post. This will ensure you're profitable.
Q. Do you post only straight bets or both straight bets and parlays?
Both. We try to ensure that the odds are always better than -160. So if our model really likes a bet, but its -190, we'll often parlay it with what we call "layup legs". These are simply >90% bets that almost always hit. On the other hand if the odds are -120 for a straight bet, we won't parlay it with anything.
Bet Recap 10/9/23
Alright so 5/10 this week with NFL bets. Not a good week. We'll get better as the season progresses. Let's dig into the bets and see what went right/wrong.
Thursday
DJ Moore - hit easily
Sunday
Stefon Diggs/Bills ML parlay - shouldn't have added the second leg, got a bit greedy there. Diggs hit and we should have won that as a straight bet.
Trevor Lawrence under 36.5 completions - he ended up with 37. This one hurt, the Bills literally just couldn't stay on the field. They started the game with like 4 straight 3 and outs - clearly the time difference affected them.
Zay Flowers over receptions - hit easily
Jonnu Smith Dolphins parlay - hit easily
Adam Thilien over receptions - hit easily
Jamarr Chase over receptions - hit easily
Monday
Davante Adams - he had FIFTY targets entering last nights game through 4 games. Somehow he was only targeted 4 times last night in a supposed to be revenge game. Very strange
Romeo Doubs - was their leading receiver entering last nights game, the Raiders had been particularly bad at giving up short passes in the middle of the field, Jordan Love was just horrible and kept throwing picks anytime he targeted Doubs. Last night was just a weird game where the data pointed one way and the results went the other way.
The next few weeks are going to be light, MLB is done and all we have in NFL until NBA kicks off end of October. But we want to wait till about November 10th before we starting betting on NBA - need 1-2 weeks of game data for the predictions to be solid. We will get back into the swing of things, and I'm confident NFL will get better. If you want to just wait for NBA that's an option too.
MLB Hit Rate - 260/383 67.8% on the year.
NFL Hit Rate - 6/14 - 42% This number will go up as the season progresses
Our season to date success rate when blindly trusting the model is 62% over walks, 61% over strikeouts, 58% under walks, and 56% under strikeouts. When we post our recommended bets, it's the combination of our AI model and human analysis that leads to a 68% success rate. Just be cautious when blindly trusting the model.
George Box once said, "All models are wrong, some are useful." Truer words were never spoken.