Bet Recap 10/9/23

Alright so 5/10 this week with NFL bets. Not a good week. We'll get better as the season progresses. Let's dig into the bets and see what went right/wrong.

Thursday

  1. DJ Moore - hit easily

Sunday

  1. Stefon Diggs/Bills ML parlay - shouldn't have added the second leg, got a bit greedy there. Diggs hit and we should have won that as a straight bet.
  2. Trevor Lawrence under 36.5 completions - he ended up with 37. This one hurt, the Bills literally just couldn't stay on the field. They started the game with like 4 straight 3 and outs - clearly the time difference affected them.
  3. Zay Flowers over receptions - hit easily
  4. Jonnu Smith Dolphins parlay - hit easily
  5. Adam Thilien over receptions - hit easily
  6. Jamarr Chase over receptions - hit easily

Monday

  1. Davante Adams - he had FIFTY targets entering last nights game through 4 games. Somehow he was only targeted 4 times last night in a supposed to be revenge game. Very strange
  2. Romeo Doubs - was their leading receiver entering last nights game, the Raiders had been particularly bad at giving up short passes in the middle of the field, Jordan Love was just horrible and kept throwing picks anytime he targeted Doubs. Last night was just a weird game where the data pointed one way and the results went the other way.

The next few weeks are going to be light, MLB is done and all we have in NFL until NBA kicks off end of October. But we want to wait till about November 10th before we starting betting on NBA - need 1-2 weeks of game data for the predictions to be solid. We will get back into the swing of things, and I'm confident NFL will get better. If you want to just wait for NBA that's an option too.

MLB Hit Rate - 260/383 67.8% on the year.

NFL Hit Rate - 6/14 - 42% This number will go up as the season progresses

-Shon

Upgrade for Premium Access. Upgrade Now

Last Night Bets

Last night bets: 3/3

Last 3 Nights Bets

Last 3 Nights Bets: 7/7

Our season to date success rate when blindly trusting the model is 62% over walks, 61% over strikeouts, 58% under walks, and 56% under strikeouts. When we post our recommended bets, it's the combination of our AI model and human analysis that leads to a 68% success rate. Just be cautious when blindly trusting the model.

George Box once said, "All models are wrong, some are useful." Truer words were never spoken.

Over Walks Predictions old

wdt_ID Player Name Game Date Over/Under Market Implied Probability Predicted Over Probability
1805 Patrick Sandoval 05/01/2024 1.50 64.91% 62.61%
1806 Dakota Hudson 05/01/2024 1.50 60.0% 61.67%
1807 Chris Bassitt 05/01/2024 1.50 47.62% 58.67%
1808 Kenta Maeda 05/01/2024 1.50 58.33% 54.73%
1809 Ross Stripling 05/01/2024 1.50 51.22% 53.79%
1810 Joe Musgrove 05/01/2024 1.50 58.33% 53.13%
1811 Yoshinobu Yamamoto 05/01/2024 1.50 57.45% 52.13%
1812 Chris Flexen 05/01/2024 1.50 62.26% 52.01%
1813 Seth Lugo 05/01/2024 1.50 57.45% 51.96%
1814 Trevor Williams 05/01/2024 1.50 60.0% 50.34%

Under Walks Predictions old

wdt_ID Player Name Game Date Over/Under Market Implied Probability Predicted Under Probability
1788 Quinn Priester 05/01/2024 2.50 65.52% 78.01%
1789 Corbin Burnes 05/01/2024 2.50 62.26% 75.53%
1790 Shota Imanaga 05/01/2024 1.50 64.29% 68.06%
1791 Triston McKenzie 05/01/2024 2.50 63.64% 67.76%
1792 Bailey Ober 05/01/2024 1.50 67.21% 67.28%
1793 Miles Mikolas 05/01/2024 1.50 62.26% 66.73%
1794 Zach Eflin 05/01/2024 1.50 62.26% 62.39%
1795 Colin Rea 05/01/2024 1.50 58.33% 60.43%
1796 Andrew Heaney 05/01/2024 1.50 53.49% 58.76%
1797 Zack Wheeler 05/01/2024 1.50 56.52% 58.36%

Over Strikeouts Predictions old

wdt_ID Player Name Game Date Over/Under Market Implied Probability Exact Prediction Predicted Over Probability
1802 Dakota Hudson 05/01/2024 2.50 63.64% 3.45 68.62%
1803 Ross Stripling 05/01/2024 4.50 50.0% 4.96 59.51%
1804 Quinn Priester 05/01/2024 4.50 61.54% 5.22 59.34%
1805 Graham Ashcraft 05/01/2024 4.50 47.62% 4.85 55.14%
1806 Jose Butto 05/01/2024 5.50 54.55% 5.93 55.11%
1807 Patrick Sandoval 05/01/2024 5.50 52.38% 5.57 51.13%
1808 Shota Imanaga 05/01/2024 4.50 58.33% 4.46 49.56%
1809 Justin Verlander 05/01/2024 5.50 45.45% 5.22 46.85%
1810 Bailey Ober 05/01/2024 5.50 51.22% 5.20 46.39%
1811 Yoshinobu Yamamoto 05/01/2024 5.50 46.51% 5.06 44.56%

Under Strikeouts Predictions old

wdt_ID Player Name Game Date Over/Under Market Implied Probability Exact Prediction Predicted Under Probability
1800 Chris Flexen 05/01/2024 4.50 62.26% 3.26 79.84%
1801 Zach Eflin 05/01/2024 5.50 60.0% 3.94 78.47%
1802 Jordan Montgomery 05/01/2024 4.50 58.33% 3.23 72.96%
1803 Kenta Maeda 05/01/2024 4.50 53.49% 3.68 66.43%
1804 Triston McKenzie 05/01/2024 4.50 60.78% 3.37 65.58%
1805 Colin Rea 05/01/2024 4.50 53.49% 3.79 63.85%
1806 Chris Bassitt 05/01/2024 4.50 47.62% 3.64 63.53%
1807 Joe Musgrove 05/01/2024 6.50 59.18% 5.81 63.05%
1808 Andrew Heaney 05/01/2024 4.50 60.0% 3.55 62.11%
1809 Seth Lugo 05/01/2024 4.50 58.33% 3.78 59.66%

Over Hits Predictions old

wdt_ID Player Name Game Date Over/Under Market Implied Probability Exact Prediction Predicted Over Probability
1385 Andrew Heaney 05/01/2024 4.50 61.54% 5.20 65.46%
1386 Zack Wheeler 05/01/2024 4.50 58.33% 5.35 63.97%
1387 Bailey Ober 05/01/2024 4.50 55.56% 5.27 60.13%
1388 Kutter Crawford 05/01/2024 4.50 62.96% 5.29 58.92%
1389 Triston McKenzie 05/01/2024 4.50 56.52% 4.90 58.06%
1390 Joe Musgrove 05/01/2024 4.50 56.52% 4.96 57.02%
1391 Luis Gil 05/01/2024 4.50 59.18% 4.78 54.89%
1392 Corbin Burnes 05/01/2024 4.50 48.78% 4.86 54.64%
1393 Colin Rea 05/01/2024 5.50 44.44% 5.71 53.5%
1394 Kenta Maeda 05/01/2024 4.50 61.54% 4.68 52.57%

Under Hits Predictions old

Player Name wdt_ID Game Date Over/Under Market Implied Probability Exact Prediction Predicted Under Probability
Chris Flexen 1370 2024-05-01 5.5 60.0% 4.4940734 62.99%
Justin Verlander 1371 2024-05-01 5.5 55.56% 4.854916 62.17%
Dakota Hudson 1372 2024-05-01 6.5 57.45% 5.684455 62.13%
Miles Mikolas 1373 2024-05-01 6.5 54.55% 5.776083 59.76%
Seth Lugo 1374 2024-05-01 6.5 62.26% 5.7365 59.01%
Shota Imanaga 1375 2024-05-01 5.5 62.26% 4.9883323 58.79%
Yoshinobu Yamamoto 1376 2024-05-01 5.5 60.0% 5.1008363 57.37%
Trevor Williams 1377 2024-05-01 5.5 54.55% 5.2182055 55.43%
Patrick Sandoval 1378 2024-05-01 5.5 56.52% 5.125405 55.38%
Ross Stripling 1379 2024-05-01 5.5 57.45% 5.3271947 52.06%

Over Outs Predictions old

Player Name Game Date Over/Under Market Implied Probability Exact Prediction Predicted Over Probability wdt_ID
Luis Gil 2024-05-01 15.5 50.0% 16.312172 54.78% 1236
Zack Wheeler 2024-05-01 18.5 50.0% 19.027063 52.83% 1237
Yoshinobu Yamamoto 2024-05-01 15.5 55.56% 15.927884 52.32% 1238
Colin Rea 2024-05-01 15.5 48.78% 15.90167 52.32% 1239
Patrick Sandoval 2024-05-01 16.5 50.0% 16.71748 51.32% 1240
Graham Ashcraft 2024-05-01 17.5 60.0% 17.586697 50.48% 1241
Dakota Hudson 2024-05-01 15.5 53.49% 15.572465 50.42% 1242
Corbin Burnes 2024-05-01 16.5 58.33% 16.50232 50.01% 1243
Ross Stripling 2024-05-01 16.5 50.0% 16.414318 49.5% 1244
Shota Imanaga 2024-05-01 17.5 52.38% 17.389748 49.45% 1245

Under Outs Predictions old

Player Name Game Date Exact Prediction Over/Under Market Implied Probability Predicted Under Probability wdt_ID
Chris Bassitt 2024-05-01 17.198654 18.5 65.52% 57.4% 1200
Kenta Maeda 2024-05-01 14.288654 15.5 56.52% 57.07% 1201
Miles Mikolas 2024-05-01 16.423141 17.5 51.22% 56.53% 1202
Trevor Williams 2024-05-01 14.4420805 15.5 57.45% 56.35% 1203
Joe Musgrove 2024-05-01 16.469662 17.5 52.38% 55.97% 1204
Jose Butto 2024-05-01 15.486002 16.5 54.55% 55.26% 1205
Kutter Crawford 2024-05-01 16.683558 17.5 55.56% 55.0% 1206
Seth Lugo 2024-05-01 16.704185 17.5 45.45% 54.28% 1207
Chris Flexen 2024-05-01 13.82266 14.5 43.48% 53.69% 1208
Zach Eflin 2024-05-01 16.982737 17.5 48.78% 53.02% 1209

You must be a registered user to participate in this chat.

Odds Calculator

Convert american or decimal odds to implied probability

wdt_ID American Odds Decimal Odds Implied Probability
4002 -10000 1.01 99.01%
American Odds Decimal Odds

Kelly Criteria Calculator

wdt_ID Optimal Bankroll Percent Win Probability (%) American Odds
252401 0.0% 1 -500.00
Win Probability (%) American Odds

Parlay Calculator - Pitcher Hits Allowed + Opposing Team Runs Scored

Calculate the joint probability of a pitcher allowing a certain amount of hits and the opposing team scoring a certain amount of runs.

wdt_ID Pitcher Name Pitcher Hits Allowed Line Opposing Team Runs Scored Line Joint Probability of Both Going Over Number of Games Pitched This Season
193762
Pitcher Name Pitcher Hits Allowed Line Opposing Team Runs Scored Line

How to use this page:

As the games are going on, the sportsbooks constantly update the odds for a particular team winning, depending on the score, the inning, the number of outs, and the runners on. We’ve used machine learning to get you the exact win probability for every possible game state imaginable.

1. Enter what team you want the win probability for (Home/Away)

2. Enter what inning it is (number and top or bottom) as well as how many outs there are

3. Enter the run differential (If you want the score for the home team and they’re losing 5-1, you put -4 for run differential. If they’re winning 5-1, you put 4)

4. Enter yes/no whether there’s a runner on 1st, 2nd or 3rd.

5. Using the second table, type in the odds DraftKings or FanDuel (any sportbook really) is giving you, to get their implied market probability. If there’s a significant difference between our model’s win probability and the sportsbook’s win probability, it’s potentially a bet worth placing!

IMPORTANT: This current version is a non-team specific probability. It is not considering who the current pitcher is, who’s at bat, whether it’s a terrible team vs the best team in baseball, or anything besides what’s in the dropdown options. Down the line, we plan on releasing a more sophisticated team-specific model.

Live In Game Probability Update

Get any team's live in game win probability by using our model trained on 10+ years of data.

wdt_ID Home/Away Inning Top/Bottom Inning Outs Run Difference Runner on 1B Runner on 2B Runner on 3B Probability of Win team_batting preds
1 Away 12 Bottom 2 5 No Yes No 99.95% 0 1
Home/Away Inning Top/Bottom Inning Outs Run Difference Runner on 1B Runner on 2B Runner on 3B

Odds Calculator

Convert american or decimal odds to implied probability

wdt_ID American Odds Decimal Odds Implied Probability
4002 -10000 1.01 99.01%
American Odds Decimal Odds

Congratulations, you're officially ready to start placing bets as a member of AI Betting Edge! If you're a seasoned sports bettor, much of the content below won't be new information for you. However, we advise everyone to skim through this guide at least once before diving in and placing bets.

Q. Where should I go to place the bets you post?

For MLB season, 90% of our bets are on DraftKings. DraftKings offers pitcher walk props which have been our hottest market. FanDuel DOES NOT offer walk props. To ensure you catch all of our posted plays, definitely sign up for DraftKings. If you can't for whatever reason, Caesars also offers walk props but not the creative alt lines that DraftKings offers.

Q. How many bets do you post daily?

This depends a lot on the slate size (number of games that day), and how sharp the lines are. Generally we post anywhere from 1-5 bets daily. We also post all our machine learning predictions in case you want to make your own bets.

Q. What happens if the odds are different than what you post, or the line itself has moved?

Obviously, the betting market is indeed a market, and there's no guarantee that if we post a bet at -130, by the time you go to place it it's not at -140. Typically things don't move THAT quickly, but they certainly do from time to time. Our general recommendation is, if the odds move, you should still place the bet. However if the LINE moves (we post an over 5.5 assists bet and when you go to place it, the line is 6.5), we recommend not placing the bet. A lot of people think "Oh what's the difference it's only 1 more strikeout", trust me, it's ALL of the difference. We're dealing with razor thin margins here.

Q. How much should I bet more on bets that you post?

We recommend betting 1 unit on every bet we post. This will ensure you're profitable.

Q. Do you post only straight bets or both straight bets and parlays?

Both. We try to ensure that the odds are always better than -160. So if our model really likes a bet, but its -190, we'll often parlay it with what we call "layup legs". These are simply >90% bets that almost always hit. On the other hand if the odds are -120 for a straight bet, we won't parlay it with anything.

Bet Recap 10/9/23

Alright so 5/10 this week with NFL bets. Not a good week. We'll get better as the season progresses. Let's dig into the bets and see what went right/wrong.

Thursday

  1. DJ Moore - hit easily

Sunday

  1. Stefon Diggs/Bills ML parlay - shouldn't have added the second leg, got a bit greedy there. Diggs hit and we should have won that as a straight bet.
  2. Trevor Lawrence under 36.5 completions - he ended up with 37. This one hurt, the Bills literally just couldn't stay on the field. They started the game with like 4 straight 3 and outs - clearly the time difference affected them.
  3. Zay Flowers over receptions - hit easily
  4. Jonnu Smith Dolphins parlay - hit easily
  5. Adam Thilien over receptions - hit easily
  6. Jamarr Chase over receptions - hit easily

Monday

  1. Davante Adams - he had FIFTY targets entering last nights game through 4 games. Somehow he was only targeted 4 times last night in a supposed to be revenge game. Very strange
  2. Romeo Doubs - was their leading receiver entering last nights game, the Raiders had been particularly bad at giving up short passes in the middle of the field, Jordan Love was just horrible and kept throwing picks anytime he targeted Doubs. Last night was just a weird game where the data pointed one way and the results went the other way.

The next few weeks are going to be light, MLB is done and all we have in NFL until NBA kicks off end of October. But we want to wait till about November 10th before we starting betting on NBA - need 1-2 weeks of game data for the predictions to be solid. We will get back into the swing of things, and I'm confident NFL will get better. If you want to just wait for NBA that's an option too.

MLB Hit Rate - 260/383 67.8% on the year.

NFL Hit Rate - 6/14 - 42% This number will go up as the season progresses

-Shon

Upgrade for Premium Access. Upgrade Now

Last Night Bets

Last night bets: 3/3

Last 3 Nights Bets

Last 3 Nights Bets: 7/7

Our season to date success rate when blindly trusting the model is 62% over walks, 61% over strikeouts, 58% under walks, and 56% under strikeouts. When we post our recommended bets, it's the combination of our AI model and human analysis that leads to a 68% success rate. Just be cautious when blindly trusting the model.

George Box once said, "All models are wrong, some are useful." Truer words were never spoken.

Over Walks Predictions old

wdt_ID Player Name Game Date Over/Under Market Implied Probability Predicted Over Probability
1805 Patrick Sandoval 05/01/2024 1.50 64.91% 62.61%
1806 Dakota Hudson 05/01/2024 1.50 60.0% 61.67%
1807 Chris Bassitt 05/01/2024 1.50 47.62% 58.67%
1808 Kenta Maeda 05/01/2024 1.50 58.33% 54.73%
1809 Ross Stripling 05/01/2024 1.50 51.22% 53.79%
1810 Joe Musgrove 05/01/2024 1.50 58.33% 53.13%
1811 Yoshinobu Yamamoto 05/01/2024 1.50 57.45% 52.13%
1812 Chris Flexen 05/01/2024 1.50 62.26% 52.01%
1813 Seth Lugo 05/01/2024 1.50 57.45% 51.96%
1814 Trevor Williams 05/01/2024 1.50 60.0% 50.34%

Under Walks Predictions old

wdt_ID Player Name Game Date Over/Under Market Implied Probability Predicted Under Probability
1788 Quinn Priester 05/01/2024 2.50 65.52% 78.01%
1789 Corbin Burnes 05/01/2024 2.50 62.26% 75.53%
1790 Shota Imanaga 05/01/2024 1.50 64.29% 68.06%
1791 Triston McKenzie 05/01/2024 2.50 63.64% 67.76%
1792 Bailey Ober 05/01/2024 1.50 67.21% 67.28%
1793 Miles Mikolas 05/01/2024 1.50 62.26% 66.73%
1794 Zach Eflin 05/01/2024 1.50 62.26% 62.39%
1795 Colin Rea 05/01/2024 1.50 58.33% 60.43%
1796 Andrew Heaney 05/01/2024 1.50 53.49% 58.76%
1797 Zack Wheeler 05/01/2024 1.50 56.52% 58.36%

Over Strikeouts Predictions old

wdt_ID Player Name Game Date Over/Under Market Implied Probability Exact Prediction Predicted Over Probability
1802 Dakota Hudson 05/01/2024 2.50 63.64% 3.45 68.62%
1803 Ross Stripling 05/01/2024 4.50 50.0% 4.96 59.51%
1804 Quinn Priester 05/01/2024 4.50 61.54% 5.22 59.34%
1805 Graham Ashcraft 05/01/2024 4.50 47.62% 4.85 55.14%
1806 Jose Butto 05/01/2024 5.50 54.55% 5.93 55.11%
1807 Patrick Sandoval 05/01/2024 5.50 52.38% 5.57 51.13%
1808 Shota Imanaga 05/01/2024 4.50 58.33% 4.46 49.56%
1809 Justin Verlander 05/01/2024 5.50 45.45% 5.22 46.85%
1810 Bailey Ober 05/01/2024 5.50 51.22% 5.20 46.39%
1811 Yoshinobu Yamamoto 05/01/2024 5.50 46.51% 5.06 44.56%

Under Strikeouts Predictions old

wdt_ID Player Name Game Date Over/Under Market Implied Probability Exact Prediction Predicted Under Probability
1800 Chris Flexen 05/01/2024 4.50 62.26% 3.26 79.84%
1801 Zach Eflin 05/01/2024 5.50 60.0% 3.94 78.47%
1802 Jordan Montgomery 05/01/2024 4.50 58.33% 3.23 72.96%
1803 Kenta Maeda 05/01/2024 4.50 53.49% 3.68 66.43%
1804 Triston McKenzie 05/01/2024 4.50 60.78% 3.37 65.58%
1805 Colin Rea 05/01/2024 4.50 53.49% 3.79 63.85%
1806 Chris Bassitt 05/01/2024 4.50 47.62% 3.64 63.53%
1807 Joe Musgrove 05/01/2024 6.50 59.18% 5.81 63.05%
1808 Andrew Heaney 05/01/2024 4.50 60.0% 3.55 62.11%
1809 Seth Lugo 05/01/2024 4.50 58.33% 3.78 59.66%

Over Hits Predictions old

wdt_ID Player Name Game Date Over/Under Market Implied Probability Exact Prediction Predicted Over Probability
1385 Andrew Heaney 05/01/2024 4.50 61.54% 5.20 65.46%
1386 Zack Wheeler 05/01/2024 4.50 58.33% 5.35 63.97%
1387 Bailey Ober 05/01/2024 4.50 55.56% 5.27 60.13%
1388 Kutter Crawford 05/01/2024 4.50 62.96% 5.29 58.92%
1389 Triston McKenzie 05/01/2024 4.50 56.52% 4.90 58.06%
1390 Joe Musgrove 05/01/2024 4.50 56.52% 4.96 57.02%
1391 Luis Gil 05/01/2024 4.50 59.18% 4.78 54.89%
1392 Corbin Burnes 05/01/2024 4.50 48.78% 4.86 54.64%
1393 Colin Rea 05/01/2024 5.50 44.44% 5.71 53.5%
1394 Kenta Maeda 05/01/2024 4.50 61.54% 4.68 52.57%

Under Hits Predictions old

Player Name wdt_ID Game Date Over/Under Market Implied Probability Exact Prediction Predicted Under Probability
Chris Flexen 1370 2024-05-01 5.5 60.0% 4.4940734 62.99%
Justin Verlander 1371 2024-05-01 5.5 55.56% 4.854916 62.17%
Dakota Hudson 1372 2024-05-01 6.5 57.45% 5.684455 62.13%
Miles Mikolas 1373 2024-05-01 6.5 54.55% 5.776083 59.76%
Seth Lugo 1374 2024-05-01 6.5 62.26% 5.7365 59.01%
Shota Imanaga 1375 2024-05-01 5.5 62.26% 4.9883323 58.79%
Yoshinobu Yamamoto 1376 2024-05-01 5.5 60.0% 5.1008363 57.37%
Trevor Williams 1377 2024-05-01 5.5 54.55% 5.2182055 55.43%
Patrick Sandoval 1378 2024-05-01 5.5 56.52% 5.125405 55.38%
Ross Stripling 1379 2024-05-01 5.5 57.45% 5.3271947 52.06%

Over Outs Predictions old

Player Name Game Date Over/Under Market Implied Probability Exact Prediction Predicted Over Probability wdt_ID
Luis Gil 2024-05-01 15.5 50.0% 16.312172 54.78% 1236
Zack Wheeler 2024-05-01 18.5 50.0% 19.027063 52.83% 1237
Yoshinobu Yamamoto 2024-05-01 15.5 55.56% 15.927884 52.32% 1238
Colin Rea 2024-05-01 15.5 48.78% 15.90167 52.32% 1239
Patrick Sandoval 2024-05-01 16.5 50.0% 16.71748 51.32% 1240
Graham Ashcraft 2024-05-01 17.5 60.0% 17.586697 50.48% 1241
Dakota Hudson 2024-05-01 15.5 53.49% 15.572465 50.42% 1242
Corbin Burnes 2024-05-01 16.5 58.33% 16.50232 50.01% 1243
Ross Stripling 2024-05-01 16.5 50.0% 16.414318 49.5% 1244
Shota Imanaga 2024-05-01 17.5 52.38% 17.389748 49.45% 1245

Under Outs Predictions old

Player Name Game Date Exact Prediction Over/Under Market Implied Probability Predicted Under Probability wdt_ID
Chris Bassitt 2024-05-01 17.198654 18.5 65.52% 57.4% 1200
Kenta Maeda 2024-05-01 14.288654 15.5 56.52% 57.07% 1201
Miles Mikolas 2024-05-01 16.423141 17.5 51.22% 56.53% 1202
Trevor Williams 2024-05-01 14.4420805 15.5 57.45% 56.35% 1203
Joe Musgrove 2024-05-01 16.469662 17.5 52.38% 55.97% 1204
Jose Butto 2024-05-01 15.486002 16.5 54.55% 55.26% 1205
Kutter Crawford 2024-05-01 16.683558 17.5 55.56% 55.0% 1206
Seth Lugo 2024-05-01 16.704185 17.5 45.45% 54.28% 1207
Chris Flexen 2024-05-01 13.82266 14.5 43.48% 53.69% 1208
Zach Eflin 2024-05-01 16.982737 17.5 48.78% 53.02% 1209

You must be a registered user to participate in this chat.

Odds Calculator

Convert american or decimal odds to implied probability

wdt_ID American Odds Decimal Odds Implied Probability
4002 -10000 1.01 99.01%
American Odds Decimal Odds

Kelly Criteria Calculator

wdt_ID Optimal Bankroll Percent Win Probability (%) American Odds
252401 0.0% 1 -500.00
Win Probability (%) American Odds

Parlay Calculator - Pitcher Hits Allowed + Opposing Team Runs Scored

Calculate the joint probability of a pitcher allowing a certain amount of hits and the opposing team scoring a certain amount of runs.

wdt_ID Pitcher Name Pitcher Hits Allowed Line Opposing Team Runs Scored Line Joint Probability of Both Going Over Number of Games Pitched This Season
193762
Pitcher Name Pitcher Hits Allowed Line Opposing Team Runs Scored Line

How to use this page:

As the games are going on, the sportsbooks constantly update the odds for a particular team winning, depending on the score, the inning, the number of outs, and the runners on. We’ve used machine learning to get you the exact win probability for every possible game state imaginable.

1. Enter what team you want the win probability for (Home/Away)

2. Enter what inning it is (number and top or bottom) as well as how many outs there are

3. Enter the run differential (If you want the score for the home team and they’re losing 5-1, you put -4 for run differential. If they’re winning 5-1, you put 4)

4. Enter yes/no whether there’s a runner on 1st, 2nd or 3rd.

5. Using the second table, type in the odds DraftKings or FanDuel (any sportbook really) is giving you, to get their implied market probability. If there’s a significant difference between our model’s win probability and the sportsbook’s win probability, it’s potentially a bet worth placing!

IMPORTANT: This current version is a non-team specific probability. It is not considering who the current pitcher is, who’s at bat, whether it’s a terrible team vs the best team in baseball, or anything besides what’s in the dropdown options. Down the line, we plan on releasing a more sophisticated team-specific model.

Live In Game Probability Update

Get any team's live in game win probability by using our model trained on 10+ years of data.

wdt_ID Home/Away Inning Top/Bottom Inning Outs Run Difference Runner on 1B Runner on 2B Runner on 3B Probability of Win team_batting preds
1 Away 12 Bottom 2 5 No Yes No 99.95% 0 1
Home/Away Inning Top/Bottom Inning Outs Run Difference Runner on 1B Runner on 2B Runner on 3B

Odds Calculator

Convert american or decimal odds to implied probability

wdt_ID American Odds Decimal Odds Implied Probability
4002 -10000 1.01 99.01%
American Odds Decimal Odds

Congratulations, you're officially ready to start placing bets as a member of AI Betting Edge! If you're a seasoned sports bettor, much of the content below won't be new information for you. However, we advise everyone to skim through this guide at least once before diving in and placing bets.

Q. Where should I go to place the bets you post?

For MLB season, 90% of our bets are on DraftKings. DraftKings offers pitcher walk props which have been our hottest market. FanDuel DOES NOT offer walk props. To ensure you catch all of our posted plays, definitely sign up for DraftKings. If you can't for whatever reason, Caesars also offers walk props but not the creative alt lines that DraftKings offers.

Q. How many bets do you post daily?

This depends a lot on the slate size (number of games that day), and how sharp the lines are. Generally we post anywhere from 1-5 bets daily. We also post all our machine learning predictions in case you want to make your own bets.

Q. What happens if the odds are different than what you post, or the line itself has moved?

Obviously, the betting market is indeed a market, and there's no guarantee that if we post a bet at -130, by the time you go to place it it's not at -140. Typically things don't move THAT quickly, but they certainly do from time to time. Our general recommendation is, if the odds move, you should still place the bet. However if the LINE moves (we post an over 5.5 assists bet and when you go to place it, the line is 6.5), we recommend not placing the bet. A lot of people think "Oh what's the difference it's only 1 more strikeout", trust me, it's ALL of the difference. We're dealing with razor thin margins here.

Q. How much should I bet more on bets that you post?

We recommend betting 1 unit on every bet we post. This will ensure you're profitable.

Q. Do you post only straight bets or both straight bets and parlays?

Both. We try to ensure that the odds are always better than -160. So if our model really likes a bet, but its -190, we'll often parlay it with what we call "layup legs". These are simply >90% bets that almost always hit. On the other hand if the odds are -120 for a straight bet, we won't parlay it with anything.

Bet Recap 10/9/23

Alright so 5/10 this week with NFL bets. Not a good week. We'll get better as the season progresses. Let's dig into the bets and see what went right/wrong.

Thursday

  1. DJ Moore - hit easily

Sunday

  1. Stefon Diggs/Bills ML parlay - shouldn't have added the second leg, got a bit greedy there. Diggs hit and we should have won that as a straight bet.
  2. Trevor Lawrence under 36.5 completions - he ended up with 37. This one hurt, the Bills literally just couldn't stay on the field. They started the game with like 4 straight 3 and outs - clearly the time difference affected them.
  3. Zay Flowers over receptions - hit easily
  4. Jonnu Smith Dolphins parlay - hit easily
  5. Adam Thilien over receptions - hit easily
  6. Jamarr Chase over receptions - hit easily

Monday

  1. Davante Adams - he had FIFTY targets entering last nights game through 4 games. Somehow he was only targeted 4 times last night in a supposed to be revenge game. Very strange
  2. Romeo Doubs - was their leading receiver entering last nights game, the Raiders had been particularly bad at giving up short passes in the middle of the field, Jordan Love was just horrible and kept throwing picks anytime he targeted Doubs. Last night was just a weird game where the data pointed one way and the results went the other way.

The next few weeks are going to be light, MLB is done and all we have in NFL until NBA kicks off end of October. But we want to wait till about November 10th before we starting betting on NBA - need 1-2 weeks of game data for the predictions to be solid. We will get back into the swing of things, and I'm confident NFL will get better. If you want to just wait for NBA that's an option too.

MLB Hit Rate - 260/383 67.8% on the year.

NFL Hit Rate - 6/14 - 42% This number will go up as the season progresses

-Shon

Upgrade for Premium Access. Upgrade Now

Last Night Bets

Last night bets: 3/3

Last 3 Nights Bets

Last 3 Nights Bets: 7/7

Our season to date success rate when blindly trusting the model is 62% over walks, 61% over strikeouts, 58% under walks, and 56% under strikeouts. When we post our recommended bets, it's the combination of our AI model and human analysis that leads to a 68% success rate. Just be cautious when blindly trusting the model.

George Box once said, "All models are wrong, some are useful." Truer words were never spoken.

Over Walks Predictions old

wdt_ID Player Name Game Date Over/Under Market Implied Probability Predicted Over Probability
1805 Patrick Sandoval 05/01/2024 1.50 64.91% 62.61%
1806 Dakota Hudson 05/01/2024 1.50 60.0% 61.67%
1807 Chris Bassitt 05/01/2024 1.50 47.62% 58.67%
1808 Kenta Maeda 05/01/2024 1.50 58.33% 54.73%
1809 Ross Stripling 05/01/2024 1.50 51.22% 53.79%
1810 Joe Musgrove 05/01/2024 1.50 58.33% 53.13%
1811 Yoshinobu Yamamoto 05/01/2024 1.50 57.45% 52.13%
1812 Chris Flexen 05/01/2024 1.50 62.26% 52.01%
1813 Seth Lugo 05/01/2024 1.50 57.45% 51.96%
1814 Trevor Williams 05/01/2024 1.50 60.0% 50.34%

Under Walks Predictions old

wdt_ID Player Name Game Date Over/Under Market Implied Probability Predicted Under Probability
1788 Quinn Priester 05/01/2024 2.50 65.52% 78.01%
1789 Corbin Burnes 05/01/2024 2.50 62.26% 75.53%
1790 Shota Imanaga 05/01/2024 1.50 64.29% 68.06%
1791 Triston McKenzie 05/01/2024 2.50 63.64% 67.76%
1792 Bailey Ober 05/01/2024 1.50 67.21% 67.28%
1793 Miles Mikolas 05/01/2024 1.50 62.26% 66.73%
1794 Zach Eflin 05/01/2024 1.50 62.26% 62.39%
1795 Colin Rea 05/01/2024 1.50 58.33% 60.43%
1796 Andrew Heaney 05/01/2024 1.50 53.49% 58.76%
1797 Zack Wheeler 05/01/2024 1.50 56.52% 58.36%

Over Strikeouts Predictions old

wdt_ID Player Name Game Date Over/Under Market Implied Probability Exact Prediction Predicted Over Probability
1802 Dakota Hudson 05/01/2024 2.50 63.64% 3.45 68.62%
1803 Ross Stripling 05/01/2024 4.50 50.0% 4.96 59.51%
1804 Quinn Priester 05/01/2024 4.50 61.54% 5.22 59.34%
1805 Graham Ashcraft 05/01/2024 4.50 47.62% 4.85 55.14%
1806 Jose Butto 05/01/2024 5.50 54.55% 5.93 55.11%
1807 Patrick Sandoval 05/01/2024 5.50 52.38% 5.57 51.13%
1808 Shota Imanaga 05/01/2024 4.50 58.33% 4.46 49.56%
1809 Justin Verlander 05/01/2024 5.50 45.45% 5.22 46.85%
1810 Bailey Ober 05/01/2024 5.50 51.22% 5.20 46.39%
1811 Yoshinobu Yamamoto 05/01/2024 5.50 46.51% 5.06 44.56%

Under Strikeouts Predictions old

wdt_ID Player Name Game Date Over/Under Market Implied Probability Exact Prediction Predicted Under Probability
1800 Chris Flexen 05/01/2024 4.50 62.26% 3.26 79.84%
1801 Zach Eflin 05/01/2024 5.50 60.0% 3.94 78.47%
1802 Jordan Montgomery 05/01/2024 4.50 58.33% 3.23 72.96%
1803 Kenta Maeda 05/01/2024 4.50 53.49% 3.68 66.43%
1804 Triston McKenzie 05/01/2024 4.50 60.78% 3.37 65.58%
1805 Colin Rea 05/01/2024 4.50 53.49% 3.79 63.85%
1806 Chris Bassitt 05/01/2024 4.50 47.62% 3.64 63.53%
1807 Joe Musgrove 05/01/2024 6.50 59.18% 5.81 63.05%
1808 Andrew Heaney 05/01/2024 4.50 60.0% 3.55 62.11%
1809 Seth Lugo 05/01/2024 4.50 58.33% 3.78 59.66%

Over Hits Predictions old

wdt_ID Player Name Game Date Over/Under Market Implied Probability Exact Prediction Predicted Over Probability
1385 Andrew Heaney 05/01/2024 4.50 61.54% 5.20 65.46%
1386 Zack Wheeler 05/01/2024 4.50 58.33% 5.35 63.97%
1387 Bailey Ober 05/01/2024 4.50 55.56% 5.27 60.13%
1388 Kutter Crawford 05/01/2024 4.50 62.96% 5.29 58.92%
1389 Triston McKenzie 05/01/2024 4.50 56.52% 4.90 58.06%
1390 Joe Musgrove 05/01/2024 4.50 56.52% 4.96 57.02%
1391 Luis Gil 05/01/2024 4.50 59.18% 4.78 54.89%
1392 Corbin Burnes 05/01/2024 4.50 48.78% 4.86 54.64%
1393 Colin Rea 05/01/2024 5.50 44.44% 5.71 53.5%
1394 Kenta Maeda 05/01/2024 4.50 61.54% 4.68 52.57%

Under Hits Predictions old

Player Name wdt_ID Game Date Over/Under Market Implied Probability Exact Prediction Predicted Under Probability
Chris Flexen 1370 2024-05-01 5.5 60.0% 4.4940734 62.99%
Justin Verlander 1371 2024-05-01 5.5 55.56% 4.854916 62.17%
Dakota Hudson 1372 2024-05-01 6.5 57.45% 5.684455 62.13%
Miles Mikolas 1373 2024-05-01 6.5 54.55% 5.776083 59.76%
Seth Lugo 1374 2024-05-01 6.5 62.26% 5.7365 59.01%
Shota Imanaga 1375 2024-05-01 5.5 62.26% 4.9883323 58.79%
Yoshinobu Yamamoto 1376 2024-05-01 5.5 60.0% 5.1008363 57.37%
Trevor Williams 1377 2024-05-01 5.5 54.55% 5.2182055 55.43%
Patrick Sandoval 1378 2024-05-01 5.5 56.52% 5.125405 55.38%
Ross Stripling 1379 2024-05-01 5.5 57.45% 5.3271947 52.06%

Over Outs Predictions old

Player Name Game Date Over/Under Market Implied Probability Exact Prediction Predicted Over Probability wdt_ID
Luis Gil 2024-05-01 15.5 50.0% 16.312172 54.78% 1236
Zack Wheeler 2024-05-01 18.5 50.0% 19.027063 52.83% 1237
Yoshinobu Yamamoto 2024-05-01 15.5 55.56% 15.927884 52.32% 1238
Colin Rea 2024-05-01 15.5 48.78% 15.90167 52.32% 1239
Patrick Sandoval 2024-05-01 16.5 50.0% 16.71748 51.32% 1240
Graham Ashcraft 2024-05-01 17.5 60.0% 17.586697 50.48% 1241
Dakota Hudson 2024-05-01 15.5 53.49% 15.572465 50.42% 1242
Corbin Burnes 2024-05-01 16.5 58.33% 16.50232 50.01% 1243
Ross Stripling 2024-05-01 16.5 50.0% 16.414318 49.5% 1244
Shota Imanaga 2024-05-01 17.5 52.38% 17.389748 49.45% 1245

Under Outs Predictions old

Player Name Game Date Exact Prediction Over/Under Market Implied Probability Predicted Under Probability wdt_ID
Chris Bassitt 2024-05-01 17.198654 18.5 65.52% 57.4% 1200
Kenta Maeda 2024-05-01 14.288654 15.5 56.52% 57.07% 1201
Miles Mikolas 2024-05-01 16.423141 17.5 51.22% 56.53% 1202
Trevor Williams 2024-05-01 14.4420805 15.5 57.45% 56.35% 1203
Joe Musgrove 2024-05-01 16.469662 17.5 52.38% 55.97% 1204
Jose Butto 2024-05-01 15.486002 16.5 54.55% 55.26% 1205
Kutter Crawford 2024-05-01 16.683558 17.5 55.56% 55.0% 1206
Seth Lugo 2024-05-01 16.704185 17.5 45.45% 54.28% 1207
Chris Flexen 2024-05-01 13.82266 14.5 43.48% 53.69% 1208
Zach Eflin 2024-05-01 16.982737 17.5 48.78% 53.02% 1209

You must be a registered user to participate in this chat.

Odds Calculator

Convert american or decimal odds to implied probability

wdt_ID American Odds Decimal Odds Implied Probability
4002 -10000 1.01 99.01%
American Odds Decimal Odds

Kelly Criteria Calculator

wdt_ID Optimal Bankroll Percent Win Probability (%) American Odds
252401 0.0% 1 -500.00
Win Probability (%) American Odds

Parlay Calculator - Pitcher Hits Allowed + Opposing Team Runs Scored

Calculate the joint probability of a pitcher allowing a certain amount of hits and the opposing team scoring a certain amount of runs.

wdt_ID Pitcher Name Pitcher Hits Allowed Line Opposing Team Runs Scored Line Joint Probability of Both Going Over Number of Games Pitched This Season
193762
Pitcher Name Pitcher Hits Allowed Line Opposing Team Runs Scored Line

How to use this page:

As the games are going on, the sportsbooks constantly update the odds for a particular team winning, depending on the score, the inning, the number of outs, and the runners on. We’ve used machine learning to get you the exact win probability for every possible game state imaginable.

1. Enter what team you want the win probability for (Home/Away)

2. Enter what inning it is (number and top or bottom) as well as how many outs there are

3. Enter the run differential (If you want the score for the home team and they’re losing 5-1, you put -4 for run differential. If they’re winning 5-1, you put 4)

4. Enter yes/no whether there’s a runner on 1st, 2nd or 3rd.

5. Using the second table, type in the odds DraftKings or FanDuel (any sportbook really) is giving you, to get their implied market probability. If there’s a significant difference between our model’s win probability and the sportsbook’s win probability, it’s potentially a bet worth placing!

IMPORTANT: This current version is a non-team specific probability. It is not considering who the current pitcher is, who’s at bat, whether it’s a terrible team vs the best team in baseball, or anything besides what’s in the dropdown options. Down the line, we plan on releasing a more sophisticated team-specific model.

Live In Game Probability Update

Get any team's live in game win probability by using our model trained on 10+ years of data.

wdt_ID Home/Away Inning Top/Bottom Inning Outs Run Difference Runner on 1B Runner on 2B Runner on 3B Probability of Win team_batting preds
1 Away 12 Bottom 2 5 No Yes No 99.95% 0 1
Home/Away Inning Top/Bottom Inning Outs Run Difference Runner on 1B Runner on 2B Runner on 3B

Odds Calculator

Convert american or decimal odds to implied probability

wdt_ID American Odds Decimal Odds Implied Probability
4002 -10000 1.01 99.01%
American Odds Decimal Odds

Congratulations, you're officially ready to start placing bets as a member of AI Betting Edge! If you're a seasoned sports bettor, much of the content below won't be new information for you. However, we advise everyone to skim through this guide at least once before diving in and placing bets.

Q. Where should I go to place the bets you post?

For MLB season, 90% of our bets are on DraftKings. DraftKings offers pitcher walk props which have been our hottest market. FanDuel DOES NOT offer walk props. To ensure you catch all of our posted plays, definitely sign up for DraftKings. If you can't for whatever reason, Caesars also offers walk props but not the creative alt lines that DraftKings offers.

Q. How many bets do you post daily?

This depends a lot on the slate size (number of games that day), and how sharp the lines are. Generally we post anywhere from 1-5 bets daily. We also post all our machine learning predictions in case you want to make your own bets.

Q. What happens if the odds are different than what you post, or the line itself has moved?

Obviously, the betting market is indeed a market, and there's no guarantee that if we post a bet at -130, by the time you go to place it it's not at -140. Typically things don't move THAT quickly, but they certainly do from time to time. Our general recommendation is, if the odds move, you should still place the bet. However if the LINE moves (we post an over 5.5 assists bet and when you go to place it, the line is 6.5), we recommend not placing the bet. A lot of people think "Oh what's the difference it's only 1 more strikeout", trust me, it's ALL of the difference. We're dealing with razor thin margins here.

Q. How much should I bet more on bets that you post?

We recommend betting 1 unit on every bet we post. This will ensure you're profitable.

Q. Do you post only straight bets or both straight bets and parlays?

Both. We try to ensure that the odds are always better than -160. So if our model really likes a bet, but its -190, we'll often parlay it with what we call "layup legs". These are simply >90% bets that almost always hit. On the other hand if the odds are -120 for a straight bet, we won't parlay it with anything.

Bet Recap 10/9/23

Alright so 5/10 this week with NFL bets. Not a good week. We'll get better as the season progresses. Let's dig into the bets and see what went right/wrong.

Thursday

  1. DJ Moore - hit easily

Sunday

  1. Stefon Diggs/Bills ML parlay - shouldn't have added the second leg, got a bit greedy there. Diggs hit and we should have won that as a straight bet.
  2. Trevor Lawrence under 36.5 completions - he ended up with 37. This one hurt, the Bills literally just couldn't stay on the field. They started the game with like 4 straight 3 and outs - clearly the time difference affected them.
  3. Zay Flowers over receptions - hit easily
  4. Jonnu Smith Dolphins parlay - hit easily
  5. Adam Thilien over receptions - hit easily
  6. Jamarr Chase over receptions - hit easily

Monday

  1. Davante Adams - he had FIFTY targets entering last nights game through 4 games. Somehow he was only targeted 4 times last night in a supposed to be revenge game. Very strange
  2. Romeo Doubs - was their leading receiver entering last nights game, the Raiders had been particularly bad at giving up short passes in the middle of the field, Jordan Love was just horrible and kept throwing picks anytime he targeted Doubs. Last night was just a weird game where the data pointed one way and the results went the other way.

The next few weeks are going to be light, MLB is done and all we have in NFL until NBA kicks off end of October. But we want to wait till about November 10th before we starting betting on NBA - need 1-2 weeks of game data for the predictions to be solid. We will get back into the swing of things, and I'm confident NFL will get better. If you want to just wait for NBA that's an option too.

MLB Hit Rate - 260/383 67.8% on the year.

NFL Hit Rate - 6/14 - 42% This number will go up as the season progresses

-Shon

Upgrade for Premium Access. Upgrade Now

Last Night Bets

Last night bets: 3/3

Last 3 Nights Bets

Last 3 Nights Bets: 7/7

Our season to date success rate when blindly trusting the model is 62% over walks, 61% over strikeouts, 58% under walks, and 56% under strikeouts. When we post our recommended bets, it's the combination of our AI model and human analysis that leads to a 68% success rate. Just be cautious when blindly trusting the model.

George Box once said, "All models are wrong, some are useful." Truer words were never spoken.

Over Walks Predictions old

wdt_ID Player Name Game Date Over/Under Market Implied Probability Predicted Over Probability
1805 Patrick Sandoval 05/01/2024 1.50 64.91% 62.61%
1806 Dakota Hudson 05/01/2024 1.50 60.0% 61.67%
1807 Chris Bassitt 05/01/2024 1.50 47.62% 58.67%
1808 Kenta Maeda 05/01/2024 1.50 58.33% 54.73%
1809 Ross Stripling 05/01/2024 1.50 51.22% 53.79%
1810 Joe Musgrove 05/01/2024 1.50 58.33% 53.13%
1811 Yoshinobu Yamamoto 05/01/2024 1.50 57.45% 52.13%
1812 Chris Flexen 05/01/2024 1.50 62.26% 52.01%
1813 Seth Lugo 05/01/2024 1.50 57.45% 51.96%
1814 Trevor Williams 05/01/2024 1.50 60.0% 50.34%

Under Walks Predictions old

wdt_ID Player Name Game Date Over/Under Market Implied Probability Predicted Under Probability
1788 Quinn Priester 05/01/2024 2.50 65.52% 78.01%
1789 Corbin Burnes 05/01/2024 2.50 62.26% 75.53%
1790 Shota Imanaga 05/01/2024 1.50 64.29% 68.06%
1791 Triston McKenzie 05/01/2024 2.50 63.64% 67.76%
1792 Bailey Ober 05/01/2024 1.50 67.21% 67.28%
1793 Miles Mikolas 05/01/2024 1.50 62.26% 66.73%
1794 Zach Eflin 05/01/2024 1.50 62.26% 62.39%
1795 Colin Rea 05/01/2024 1.50 58.33% 60.43%
1796 Andrew Heaney 05/01/2024 1.50 53.49% 58.76%
1797 Zack Wheeler 05/01/2024 1.50 56.52% 58.36%

Over Strikeouts Predictions old

wdt_ID Player Name Game Date Over/Under Market Implied Probability Exact Prediction Predicted Over Probability
1802 Dakota Hudson 05/01/2024 2.50 63.64% 3.45 68.62%
1803 Ross Stripling 05/01/2024 4.50 50.0% 4.96 59.51%
1804 Quinn Priester 05/01/2024 4.50 61.54% 5.22 59.34%
1805 Graham Ashcraft 05/01/2024 4.50 47.62% 4.85 55.14%
1806 Jose Butto 05/01/2024 5.50 54.55% 5.93 55.11%
1807 Patrick Sandoval 05/01/2024 5.50 52.38% 5.57 51.13%
1808 Shota Imanaga 05/01/2024 4.50 58.33% 4.46 49.56%
1809 Justin Verlander 05/01/2024 5.50 45.45% 5.22 46.85%
1810 Bailey Ober 05/01/2024 5.50 51.22% 5.20 46.39%
1811 Yoshinobu Yamamoto 05/01/2024 5.50 46.51% 5.06 44.56%

Under Strikeouts Predictions old

wdt_ID Player Name Game Date Over/Under Market Implied Probability Exact Prediction Predicted Under Probability
1800 Chris Flexen 05/01/2024 4.50 62.26% 3.26 79.84%
1801 Zach Eflin 05/01/2024 5.50 60.0% 3.94 78.47%
1802 Jordan Montgomery 05/01/2024 4.50 58.33% 3.23 72.96%
1803 Kenta Maeda 05/01/2024 4.50 53.49% 3.68 66.43%
1804 Triston McKenzie 05/01/2024 4.50 60.78% 3.37 65.58%
1805 Colin Rea 05/01/2024 4.50 53.49% 3.79 63.85%
1806 Chris Bassitt 05/01/2024 4.50 47.62% 3.64 63.53%
1807 Joe Musgrove 05/01/2024 6.50 59.18% 5.81 63.05%
1808 Andrew Heaney 05/01/2024 4.50 60.0% 3.55 62.11%
1809 Seth Lugo 05/01/2024 4.50 58.33% 3.78 59.66%

Over Hits Predictions old

wdt_ID Player Name Game Date Over/Under Market Implied Probability Exact Prediction Predicted Over Probability
1385 Andrew Heaney 05/01/2024 4.50 61.54% 5.20 65.46%
1386 Zack Wheeler 05/01/2024 4.50 58.33% 5.35 63.97%
1387 Bailey Ober 05/01/2024 4.50 55.56% 5.27 60.13%
1388 Kutter Crawford 05/01/2024 4.50 62.96% 5.29 58.92%
1389 Triston McKenzie 05/01/2024 4.50 56.52% 4.90 58.06%
1390 Joe Musgrove 05/01/2024 4.50 56.52% 4.96 57.02%
1391 Luis Gil 05/01/2024 4.50 59.18% 4.78 54.89%
1392 Corbin Burnes 05/01/2024 4.50 48.78% 4.86 54.64%
1393 Colin Rea 05/01/2024 5.50 44.44% 5.71 53.5%
1394 Kenta Maeda 05/01/2024 4.50 61.54% 4.68 52.57%

Under Hits Predictions old

Player Name wdt_ID Game Date Over/Under Market Implied Probability Exact Prediction Predicted Under Probability
Chris Flexen 1370 2024-05-01 5.5 60.0% 4.4940734 62.99%
Justin Verlander 1371 2024-05-01 5.5 55.56% 4.854916 62.17%
Dakota Hudson 1372 2024-05-01 6.5 57.45% 5.684455 62.13%
Miles Mikolas 1373 2024-05-01 6.5 54.55% 5.776083 59.76%
Seth Lugo 1374 2024-05-01 6.5 62.26% 5.7365 59.01%
Shota Imanaga 1375 2024-05-01 5.5 62.26% 4.9883323 58.79%
Yoshinobu Yamamoto 1376 2024-05-01 5.5 60.0% 5.1008363 57.37%
Trevor Williams 1377 2024-05-01 5.5 54.55% 5.2182055 55.43%
Patrick Sandoval 1378 2024-05-01 5.5 56.52% 5.125405 55.38%
Ross Stripling 1379 2024-05-01 5.5 57.45% 5.3271947 52.06%

Over Outs Predictions old

Player Name Game Date Over/Under Market Implied Probability Exact Prediction Predicted Over Probability wdt_ID
Luis Gil 2024-05-01 15.5 50.0% 16.312172 54.78% 1236
Zack Wheeler 2024-05-01 18.5 50.0% 19.027063 52.83% 1237
Yoshinobu Yamamoto 2024-05-01 15.5 55.56% 15.927884 52.32% 1238
Colin Rea 2024-05-01 15.5 48.78% 15.90167 52.32% 1239
Patrick Sandoval 2024-05-01 16.5 50.0% 16.71748 51.32% 1240
Graham Ashcraft 2024-05-01 17.5 60.0% 17.586697 50.48% 1241
Dakota Hudson 2024-05-01 15.5 53.49% 15.572465 50.42% 1242
Corbin Burnes 2024-05-01 16.5 58.33% 16.50232 50.01% 1243
Ross Stripling 2024-05-01 16.5 50.0% 16.414318 49.5% 1244
Shota Imanaga 2024-05-01 17.5 52.38% 17.389748 49.45% 1245

Under Outs Predictions old

Player Name Game Date Exact Prediction Over/Under Market Implied Probability Predicted Under Probability wdt_ID
Chris Bassitt 2024-05-01 17.198654 18.5 65.52% 57.4% 1200
Kenta Maeda 2024-05-01 14.288654 15.5 56.52% 57.07% 1201
Miles Mikolas 2024-05-01 16.423141 17.5 51.22% 56.53% 1202
Trevor Williams 2024-05-01 14.4420805 15.5 57.45% 56.35% 1203
Joe Musgrove 2024-05-01 16.469662 17.5 52.38% 55.97% 1204
Jose Butto 2024-05-01 15.486002 16.5 54.55% 55.26% 1205
Kutter Crawford 2024-05-01 16.683558 17.5 55.56% 55.0% 1206
Seth Lugo 2024-05-01 16.704185 17.5 45.45% 54.28% 1207
Chris Flexen 2024-05-01 13.82266 14.5 43.48% 53.69% 1208
Zach Eflin 2024-05-01 16.982737 17.5 48.78% 53.02% 1209

You must be a registered user to participate in this chat.

Odds Calculator

Convert american or decimal odds to implied probability

wdt_ID American Odds Decimal Odds Implied Probability
4002 -10000 1.01 99.01%
American Odds Decimal Odds

Kelly Criteria Calculator

wdt_ID Optimal Bankroll Percent Win Probability (%) American Odds
252401 0.0% 1 -500.00
Win Probability (%) American Odds

Parlay Calculator - Pitcher Hits Allowed + Opposing Team Runs Scored

Calculate the joint probability of a pitcher allowing a certain amount of hits and the opposing team scoring a certain amount of runs.

wdt_ID Pitcher Name Pitcher Hits Allowed Line Opposing Team Runs Scored Line Joint Probability of Both Going Over Number of Games Pitched This Season
193762
Pitcher Name Pitcher Hits Allowed Line Opposing Team Runs Scored Line

How to use this page:

As the games are going on, the sportsbooks constantly update the odds for a particular team winning, depending on the score, the inning, the number of outs, and the runners on. We’ve used machine learning to get you the exact win probability for every possible game state imaginable.

1. Enter what team you want the win probability for (Home/Away)

2. Enter what inning it is (number and top or bottom) as well as how many outs there are

3. Enter the run differential (If you want the score for the home team and they’re losing 5-1, you put -4 for run differential. If they’re winning 5-1, you put 4)

4. Enter yes/no whether there’s a runner on 1st, 2nd or 3rd.

5. Using the second table, type in the odds DraftKings or FanDuel (any sportbook really) is giving you, to get their implied market probability. If there’s a significant difference between our model’s win probability and the sportsbook’s win probability, it’s potentially a bet worth placing!

IMPORTANT: This current version is a non-team specific probability. It is not considering who the current pitcher is, who’s at bat, whether it’s a terrible team vs the best team in baseball, or anything besides what’s in the dropdown options. Down the line, we plan on releasing a more sophisticated team-specific model.

Live In Game Probability Update

Get any team's live in game win probability by using our model trained on 10+ years of data.

wdt_ID Home/Away Inning Top/Bottom Inning Outs Run Difference Runner on 1B Runner on 2B Runner on 3B Probability of Win team_batting preds
1 Away 12 Bottom 2 5 No Yes No 99.95% 0 1
Home/Away Inning Top/Bottom Inning Outs Run Difference Runner on 1B Runner on 2B Runner on 3B

Odds Calculator

Convert american or decimal odds to implied probability

wdt_ID American Odds Decimal Odds Implied Probability
4002 -10000 1.01 99.01%
American Odds Decimal Odds

Congratulations, you're officially ready to start placing bets as a member of AI Betting Edge! If you're a seasoned sports bettor, much of the content below won't be new information for you. However, we advise everyone to skim through this guide at least once before diving in and placing bets.

Q. Where should I go to place the bets you post?

For MLB season, 90% of our bets are on DraftKings. DraftKings offers pitcher walk props which have been our hottest market. FanDuel DOES NOT offer walk props. To ensure you catch all of our posted plays, definitely sign up for DraftKings. If you can't for whatever reason, Caesars also offers walk props but not the creative alt lines that DraftKings offers.

Q. How many bets do you post daily?

This depends a lot on the slate size (number of games that day), and how sharp the lines are. Generally we post anywhere from 1-5 bets daily. We also post all our machine learning predictions in case you want to make your own bets.

Q. What happens if the odds are different than what you post, or the line itself has moved?

Obviously, the betting market is indeed a market, and there's no guarantee that if we post a bet at -130, by the time you go to place it it's not at -140. Typically things don't move THAT quickly, but they certainly do from time to time. Our general recommendation is, if the odds move, you should still place the bet. However if the LINE moves (we post an over 5.5 assists bet and when you go to place it, the line is 6.5), we recommend not placing the bet. A lot of people think "Oh what's the difference it's only 1 more strikeout", trust me, it's ALL of the difference. We're dealing with razor thin margins here.

Q. How much should I bet more on bets that you post?

We recommend betting 1 unit on every bet we post. This will ensure you're profitable.

Q. Do you post only straight bets or both straight bets and parlays?

Both. We try to ensure that the odds are always better than -160. So if our model really likes a bet, but its -190, we'll often parlay it with what we call "layup legs". These are simply >90% bets that almost always hit. On the other hand if the odds are -120 for a straight bet, we won't parlay it with anything.

Bet Recap 10/9/23

Alright so 5/10 this week with NFL bets. Not a good week. We'll get better as the season progresses. Let's dig into the bets and see what went right/wrong.

Thursday

  1. DJ Moore - hit easily

Sunday

  1. Stefon Diggs/Bills ML parlay - shouldn't have added the second leg, got a bit greedy there. Diggs hit and we should have won that as a straight bet.
  2. Trevor Lawrence under 36.5 completions - he ended up with 37. This one hurt, the Bills literally just couldn't stay on the field. They started the game with like 4 straight 3 and outs - clearly the time difference affected them.
  3. Zay Flowers over receptions - hit easily
  4. Jonnu Smith Dolphins parlay - hit easily
  5. Adam Thilien over receptions - hit easily
  6. Jamarr Chase over receptions - hit easily

Monday

  1. Davante Adams - he had FIFTY targets entering last nights game through 4 games. Somehow he was only targeted 4 times last night in a supposed to be revenge game. Very strange
  2. Romeo Doubs - was their leading receiver entering last nights game, the Raiders had been particularly bad at giving up short passes in the middle of the field, Jordan Love was just horrible and kept throwing picks anytime he targeted Doubs. Last night was just a weird game where the data pointed one way and the results went the other way.

The next few weeks are going to be light, MLB is done and all we have in NFL until NBA kicks off end of October. But we want to wait till about November 10th before we starting betting on NBA - need 1-2 weeks of game data for the predictions to be solid. We will get back into the swing of things, and I'm confident NFL will get better. If you want to just wait for NBA that's an option too.

MLB Hit Rate - 260/383 67.8% on the year.

NFL Hit Rate - 6/14 - 42% This number will go up as the season progresses

-Shon

Upgrade for Premium Access. Upgrade Now

Last Night Bets

Last night bets: 3/3

Last 3 Nights Bets

Last 3 Nights Bets: 7/7

Our season to date success rate when blindly trusting the model is 62% over walks, 61% over strikeouts, 58% under walks, and 56% under strikeouts. When we post our recommended bets, it's the combination of our AI model and human analysis that leads to a 68% success rate. Just be cautious when blindly trusting the model.

George Box once said, "All models are wrong, some are useful." Truer words were never spoken.

Over Walks Predictions old

wdt_ID Player Name Game Date Over/Under Market Implied Probability Predicted Over Probability
1805 Patrick Sandoval 05/01/2024 1.50 64.91% 62.61%
1806 Dakota Hudson 05/01/2024 1.50 60.0% 61.67%
1807 Chris Bassitt 05/01/2024 1.50 47.62% 58.67%
1808 Kenta Maeda 05/01/2024 1.50 58.33% 54.73%
1809 Ross Stripling 05/01/2024 1.50 51.22% 53.79%
1810 Joe Musgrove 05/01/2024 1.50 58.33% 53.13%
1811 Yoshinobu Yamamoto 05/01/2024 1.50 57.45% 52.13%
1812 Chris Flexen 05/01/2024 1.50 62.26% 52.01%
1813 Seth Lugo 05/01/2024 1.50 57.45% 51.96%
1814 Trevor Williams 05/01/2024 1.50 60.0% 50.34%

Under Walks Predictions old

wdt_ID Player Name Game Date Over/Under Market Implied Probability Predicted Under Probability
1788 Quinn Priester 05/01/2024 2.50 65.52% 78.01%
1789 Corbin Burnes 05/01/2024 2.50 62.26% 75.53%
1790 Shota Imanaga 05/01/2024 1.50 64.29% 68.06%
1791 Triston McKenzie 05/01/2024 2.50 63.64% 67.76%
1792 Bailey Ober 05/01/2024 1.50 67.21% 67.28%
1793 Miles Mikolas 05/01/2024 1.50 62.26% 66.73%
1794 Zach Eflin 05/01/2024 1.50 62.26% 62.39%
1795 Colin Rea 05/01/2024 1.50 58.33% 60.43%
1796 Andrew Heaney 05/01/2024 1.50 53.49% 58.76%
1797 Zack Wheeler 05/01/2024 1.50 56.52% 58.36%

Over Strikeouts Predictions old

wdt_ID Player Name Game Date Over/Under Market Implied Probability Exact Prediction Predicted Over Probability
1802 Dakota Hudson 05/01/2024 2.50 63.64% 3.45 68.62%
1803 Ross Stripling 05/01/2024 4.50 50.0% 4.96 59.51%
1804 Quinn Priester 05/01/2024 4.50 61.54% 5.22 59.34%
1805 Graham Ashcraft 05/01/2024 4.50 47.62% 4.85 55.14%
1806 Jose Butto 05/01/2024 5.50 54.55% 5.93 55.11%
1807 Patrick Sandoval 05/01/2024 5.50 52.38% 5.57 51.13%
1808 Shota Imanaga 05/01/2024 4.50 58.33% 4.46 49.56%
1809 Justin Verlander 05/01/2024 5.50 45.45% 5.22 46.85%
1810 Bailey Ober 05/01/2024 5.50 51.22% 5.20 46.39%
1811 Yoshinobu Yamamoto 05/01/2024 5.50 46.51% 5.06 44.56%

Under Strikeouts Predictions old

wdt_ID Player Name Game Date Over/Under Market Implied Probability Exact Prediction Predicted Under Probability
1800 Chris Flexen 05/01/2024 4.50 62.26% 3.26 79.84%
1801 Zach Eflin 05/01/2024 5.50 60.0% 3.94 78.47%
1802 Jordan Montgomery 05/01/2024 4.50 58.33% 3.23 72.96%
1803 Kenta Maeda 05/01/2024 4.50 53.49% 3.68 66.43%
1804 Triston McKenzie 05/01/2024 4.50 60.78% 3.37 65.58%
1805 Colin Rea 05/01/2024 4.50 53.49% 3.79 63.85%
1806 Chris Bassitt 05/01/2024 4.50 47.62% 3.64 63.53%
1807 Joe Musgrove 05/01/2024 6.50 59.18% 5.81 63.05%
1808 Andrew Heaney 05/01/2024 4.50 60.0% 3.55 62.11%
1809 Seth Lugo 05/01/2024 4.50 58.33% 3.78 59.66%

Over Hits Predictions old

wdt_ID Player Name Game Date Over/Under Market Implied Probability Exact Prediction Predicted Over Probability
1385 Andrew Heaney 05/01/2024 4.50 61.54% 5.20 65.46%
1386 Zack Wheeler 05/01/2024 4.50 58.33% 5.35 63.97%
1387 Bailey Ober 05/01/2024 4.50 55.56% 5.27 60.13%
1388 Kutter Crawford 05/01/2024 4.50 62.96% 5.29 58.92%
1389 Triston McKenzie 05/01/2024 4.50 56.52% 4.90 58.06%
1390 Joe Musgrove 05/01/2024 4.50 56.52% 4.96 57.02%
1391 Luis Gil 05/01/2024 4.50 59.18% 4.78 54.89%
1392 Corbin Burnes 05/01/2024 4.50 48.78% 4.86 54.64%
1393 Colin Rea 05/01/2024 5.50 44.44% 5.71 53.5%
1394 Kenta Maeda 05/01/2024 4.50 61.54% 4.68 52.57%

Under Hits Predictions old

Player Name wdt_ID Game Date Over/Under Market Implied Probability Exact Prediction Predicted Under Probability
Chris Flexen 1370 2024-05-01 5.5 60.0% 4.4940734 62.99%
Justin Verlander 1371 2024-05-01 5.5 55.56% 4.854916 62.17%
Dakota Hudson 1372 2024-05-01 6.5 57.45% 5.684455 62.13%
Miles Mikolas 1373 2024-05-01 6.5 54.55% 5.776083 59.76%
Seth Lugo 1374 2024-05-01 6.5 62.26% 5.7365 59.01%
Shota Imanaga 1375 2024-05-01 5.5 62.26% 4.9883323 58.79%
Yoshinobu Yamamoto 1376 2024-05-01 5.5 60.0% 5.1008363 57.37%
Trevor Williams 1377 2024-05-01 5.5 54.55% 5.2182055 55.43%
Patrick Sandoval 1378 2024-05-01 5.5 56.52% 5.125405 55.38%
Ross Stripling 1379 2024-05-01 5.5 57.45% 5.3271947 52.06%

Over Outs Predictions old

Player Name Game Date Over/Under Market Implied Probability Exact Prediction Predicted Over Probability wdt_ID
Luis Gil 2024-05-01 15.5 50.0% 16.312172 54.78% 1236
Zack Wheeler 2024-05-01 18.5 50.0% 19.027063 52.83% 1237
Yoshinobu Yamamoto 2024-05-01 15.5 55.56% 15.927884 52.32% 1238
Colin Rea 2024-05-01 15.5 48.78% 15.90167 52.32% 1239
Patrick Sandoval 2024-05-01 16.5 50.0% 16.71748 51.32% 1240
Graham Ashcraft 2024-05-01 17.5 60.0% 17.586697 50.48% 1241
Dakota Hudson 2024-05-01 15.5 53.49% 15.572465 50.42% 1242
Corbin Burnes 2024-05-01 16.5 58.33% 16.50232 50.01% 1243
Ross Stripling 2024-05-01 16.5 50.0% 16.414318 49.5% 1244
Shota Imanaga 2024-05-01 17.5 52.38% 17.389748 49.45% 1245

Under Outs Predictions old

Player Name Game Date Exact Prediction Over/Under Market Implied Probability Predicted Under Probability wdt_ID
Chris Bassitt 2024-05-01 17.198654 18.5 65.52% 57.4% 1200
Kenta Maeda 2024-05-01 14.288654 15.5 56.52% 57.07% 1201
Miles Mikolas 2024-05-01 16.423141 17.5 51.22% 56.53% 1202
Trevor Williams 2024-05-01 14.4420805 15.5 57.45% 56.35% 1203
Joe Musgrove 2024-05-01 16.469662 17.5 52.38% 55.97% 1204
Jose Butto 2024-05-01 15.486002 16.5 54.55% 55.26% 1205
Kutter Crawford 2024-05-01 16.683558 17.5 55.56% 55.0% 1206
Seth Lugo 2024-05-01 16.704185 17.5 45.45% 54.28% 1207
Chris Flexen 2024-05-01 13.82266 14.5 43.48% 53.69% 1208
Zach Eflin 2024-05-01 16.982737 17.5 48.78% 53.02% 1209

You must be a registered user to participate in this chat.

Odds Calculator

Convert american or decimal odds to implied probability

wdt_ID American Odds Decimal Odds Implied Probability
4002 -10000 1.01 99.01%
American Odds Decimal Odds

Kelly Criteria Calculator

wdt_ID Optimal Bankroll Percent Win Probability (%) American Odds
252401 0.0% 1 -500.00
Win Probability (%) American Odds

Parlay Calculator - Pitcher Hits Allowed + Opposing Team Runs Scored

Calculate the joint probability of a pitcher allowing a certain amount of hits and the opposing team scoring a certain amount of runs.

wdt_ID Pitcher Name Pitcher Hits Allowed Line Opposing Team Runs Scored Line Joint Probability of Both Going Over Number of Games Pitched This Season
193762
Pitcher Name Pitcher Hits Allowed Line Opposing Team Runs Scored Line

How to use this page:

As the games are going on, the sportsbooks constantly update the odds for a particular team winning, depending on the score, the inning, the number of outs, and the runners on. We’ve used machine learning to get you the exact win probability for every possible game state imaginable.

1. Enter what team you want the win probability for (Home/Away)

2. Enter what inning it is (number and top or bottom) as well as how many outs there are

3. Enter the run differential (If you want the score for the home team and they’re losing 5-1, you put -4 for run differential. If they’re winning 5-1, you put 4)

4. Enter yes/no whether there’s a runner on 1st, 2nd or 3rd.

5. Using the second table, type in the odds DraftKings or FanDuel (any sportbook really) is giving you, to get their implied market probability. If there’s a significant difference between our model’s win probability and the sportsbook’s win probability, it’s potentially a bet worth placing!

IMPORTANT: This current version is a non-team specific probability. It is not considering who the current pitcher is, who’s at bat, whether it’s a terrible team vs the best team in baseball, or anything besides what’s in the dropdown options. Down the line, we plan on releasing a more sophisticated team-specific model.

Live In Game Probability Update

Get any team's live in game win probability by using our model trained on 10+ years of data.

wdt_ID Home/Away Inning Top/Bottom Inning Outs Run Difference Runner on 1B Runner on 2B Runner on 3B Probability of Win team_batting preds
1 Away 12 Bottom 2 5 No Yes No 99.95% 0 1
Home/Away Inning Top/Bottom Inning Outs Run Difference Runner on 1B Runner on 2B Runner on 3B

Odds Calculator

Convert american or decimal odds to implied probability

wdt_ID American Odds Decimal Odds Implied Probability
4002 -10000 1.01 99.01%
American Odds Decimal Odds

Congratulations, you're officially ready to start placing bets as a member of AI Betting Edge! If you're a seasoned sports bettor, much of the content below won't be new information for you. However, we advise everyone to skim through this guide at least once before diving in and placing bets.

Q. Where should I go to place the bets you post?

For MLB season, 90% of our bets are on DraftKings. DraftKings offers pitcher walk props which have been our hottest market. FanDuel DOES NOT offer walk props. To ensure you catch all of our posted plays, definitely sign up for DraftKings. If you can't for whatever reason, Caesars also offers walk props but not the creative alt lines that DraftKings offers.

Q. How many bets do you post daily?

This depends a lot on the slate size (number of games that day), and how sharp the lines are. Generally we post anywhere from 1-5 bets daily. We also post all our machine learning predictions in case you want to make your own bets.

Q. What happens if the odds are different than what you post, or the line itself has moved?

Obviously, the betting market is indeed a market, and there's no guarantee that if we post a bet at -130, by the time you go to place it it's not at -140. Typically things don't move THAT quickly, but they certainly do from time to time. Our general recommendation is, if the odds move, you should still place the bet. However if the LINE moves (we post an over 5.5 assists bet and when you go to place it, the line is 6.5), we recommend not placing the bet. A lot of people think "Oh what's the difference it's only 1 more strikeout", trust me, it's ALL of the difference. We're dealing with razor thin margins here.

Q. How much should I bet more on bets that you post?

We recommend betting 1 unit on every bet we post. This will ensure you're profitable.

Q. Do you post only straight bets or both straight bets and parlays?

Both. We try to ensure that the odds are always better than -160. So if our model really likes a bet, but its -190, we'll often parlay it with what we call "layup legs". These are simply >90% bets that almost always hit. On the other hand if the odds are -120 for a straight bet, we won't parlay it with anything.

Bet Recap 10/9/23

Alright so 5/10 this week with NFL bets. Not a good week. We'll get better as the season progresses. Let's dig into the bets and see what went right/wrong.

Thursday

  1. DJ Moore - hit easily

Sunday

  1. Stefon Diggs/Bills ML parlay - shouldn't have added the second leg, got a bit greedy there. Diggs hit and we should have won that as a straight bet.
  2. Trevor Lawrence under 36.5 completions - he ended up with 37. This one hurt, the Bills literally just couldn't stay on the field. They started the game with like 4 straight 3 and outs - clearly the time difference affected them.
  3. Zay Flowers over receptions - hit easily
  4. Jonnu Smith Dolphins parlay - hit easily
  5. Adam Thilien over receptions - hit easily
  6. Jamarr Chase over receptions - hit easily

Monday

  1. Davante Adams - he had FIFTY targets entering last nights game through 4 games. Somehow he was only targeted 4 times last night in a supposed to be revenge game. Very strange
  2. Romeo Doubs - was their leading receiver entering last nights game, the Raiders had been particularly bad at giving up short passes in the middle of the field, Jordan Love was just horrible and kept throwing picks anytime he targeted Doubs. Last night was just a weird game where the data pointed one way and the results went the other way.

The next few weeks are going to be light, MLB is done and all we have in NFL until NBA kicks off end of October. But we want to wait till about November 10th before we starting betting on NBA - need 1-2 weeks of game data for the predictions to be solid. We will get back into the swing of things, and I'm confident NFL will get better. If you want to just wait for NBA that's an option too.

MLB Hit Rate - 260/383 67.8% on the year.

NFL Hit Rate - 6/14 - 42% This number will go up as the season progresses

-Shon

Upgrade for Premium Access. Upgrade Now

Last Night Bets

Last night bets: 3/3

Last 3 Nights Bets

Last 3 Nights Bets: 7/7

Our season to date success rate when blindly trusting the model is 62% over walks, 61% over strikeouts, 58% under walks, and 56% under strikeouts. When we post our recommended bets, it's the combination of our AI model and human analysis that leads to a 68% success rate. Just be cautious when blindly trusting the model.

George Box once said, "All models are wrong, some are useful." Truer words were never spoken.

Over Walks Predictions old

wdt_ID Player Name Game Date Over/Under Market Implied Probability Predicted Over Probability
1805 Patrick Sandoval 05/01/2024 1.50 64.91% 62.61%
1806 Dakota Hudson 05/01/2024 1.50 60.0% 61.67%
1807 Chris Bassitt 05/01/2024 1.50 47.62% 58.67%
1808 Kenta Maeda 05/01/2024 1.50 58.33% 54.73%
1809 Ross Stripling 05/01/2024 1.50 51.22% 53.79%
1810 Joe Musgrove 05/01/2024 1.50 58.33% 53.13%
1811 Yoshinobu Yamamoto 05/01/2024 1.50 57.45% 52.13%
1812 Chris Flexen 05/01/2024 1.50 62.26% 52.01%
1813 Seth Lugo 05/01/2024 1.50 57.45% 51.96%
1814 Trevor Williams 05/01/2024 1.50 60.0% 50.34%

Under Walks Predictions old

wdt_ID Player Name Game Date Over/Under Market Implied Probability Predicted Under Probability
1788 Quinn Priester 05/01/2024 2.50 65.52% 78.01%
1789 Corbin Burnes 05/01/2024 2.50 62.26% 75.53%
1790 Shota Imanaga 05/01/2024 1.50 64.29% 68.06%
1791 Triston McKenzie 05/01/2024 2.50 63.64% 67.76%
1792 Bailey Ober 05/01/2024 1.50 67.21% 67.28%
1793 Miles Mikolas 05/01/2024 1.50 62.26% 66.73%
1794 Zach Eflin 05/01/2024 1.50 62.26% 62.39%
1795 Colin Rea 05/01/2024 1.50 58.33% 60.43%
1796 Andrew Heaney 05/01/2024 1.50 53.49% 58.76%
1797 Zack Wheeler 05/01/2024 1.50 56.52% 58.36%

Over Strikeouts Predictions old

wdt_ID Player Name Game Date Over/Under Market Implied Probability Exact Prediction Predicted Over Probability
1802 Dakota Hudson 05/01/2024 2.50 63.64% 3.45 68.62%
1803 Ross Stripling 05/01/2024 4.50 50.0% 4.96 59.51%
1804 Quinn Priester 05/01/2024 4.50 61.54% 5.22 59.34%
1805 Graham Ashcraft 05/01/2024 4.50 47.62% 4.85 55.14%
1806 Jose Butto 05/01/2024 5.50 54.55% 5.93 55.11%
1807 Patrick Sandoval 05/01/2024 5.50 52.38% 5.57 51.13%
1808 Shota Imanaga 05/01/2024 4.50 58.33% 4.46 49.56%
1809 Justin Verlander 05/01/2024 5.50 45.45% 5.22 46.85%
1810 Bailey Ober 05/01/2024 5.50 51.22% 5.20 46.39%
1811 Yoshinobu Yamamoto 05/01/2024 5.50 46.51% 5.06 44.56%

Under Strikeouts Predictions old